Woodward Michelle, Kapelan Zoran, Gouldby Ben
Flood Management, HR Wallingford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BA, UK.
College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, Devon, EX4 4QF, UK.
Risk Anal. 2014 Jan;34(1):75-92. doi: 10.1111/risa.12088. Epub 2013 Jul 8.
It is well recognized that adaptive and flexible flood risk strategies are required to account for future uncertainties. Development of such strategies is, however, a challenge. Climate change alone is a significant complication, but, in addition, complexities exist trying to identify the most appropriate set of mitigation measures, or interventions. There are a range of economic and environmental performance measures that require consideration, and the spatial and temporal aspects of evaluating the performance of these is complex. All these elements pose severe difficulties to decisionmakers. This article describes a decision support methodology that has the capability to assess the most appropriate set of interventions to make in a flood system and the opportune time to make these interventions, given the future uncertainties. The flood risk strategies have been explicitly designed to allow for flexible adaptive measures by capturing the concepts of real options and multiobjective optimization to evaluate potential flood risk management opportunities. A state-of-the-art flood risk analysis tool is employed to evaluate the risk associated to each strategy over future points in time and a multiobjective genetic algorithm is utilized to search for the optimal adaptive strategies. The modeling system has been applied to a reach on the Thames Estuary (London, England), and initial results show the inclusion of flexibility is advantageous, while the outputs provide decisionmakers with supplementary knowledge that previously has not been considered.
人们普遍认识到，需要采用适应性强且灵活的洪水风险策略来应对未来的不确定性。然而，制定此类策略是一项挑战。仅气候变化就是一个重大难题，此外，在确定最合适的一套缓解措施或干预措施时也存在复杂性。有一系列经济和环境绩效指标需要考虑，而评估这些指标绩效的时空方面很复杂。所有这些因素都给决策者带来了严峻困难。本文描述了一种决策支持方法，鉴于未来的不确定性，该方法有能力评估在洪水系统中应采取的最合适的一套干预措施以及采取这些干预措施的适当时机。洪水风险策略经过明确设计，通过引入实物期权和多目标优化的概念来评估潜在的洪水风险管理机会，从而允许采取灵活的适应性措施。采用了一种先进的洪水风险分析工具来评估未来各时间点与每种策略相关的风险，并利用多目标遗传算法来寻找最优的适应性策略。该建模系统已应用于泰晤士河口（英国伦敦）的一段区域，初步结果表明纳入灵活性是有益的，同时其输出为决策者提供了以前未考虑过的补充知识。
