Pandit Pranav S, Bunn David A, Pande Satish A, Aly Sharif S
School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, California, USA.
Sci Rep. 2013;3:2175. doi: 10.1038/srep02175.
Wild birds are suspected to have played a role in highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks in West Bengal. Cluster analysis showed that H5N1 was introduced in West Bengal at least 3 times between 2008 and 2010. We simulated the introduction of H5N1 by wild birds and their contact with poultry through a stochastic continuous-time mathematical model. Results showed that reducing contact between wild birds and domestic poultry, and increasing the culling rate of infected domestic poultry communities will reduce the probability of outbreaks. Poultry communities that shared habitat with wild birds or those indistricts with previous outbreaks were more likely to suffer an outbreak. These results indicate that wild birds can introduce HPAI to domestic poultry and that limiting their contact at shared habitats together with swift culling of infected domestic poultry can greatly reduce the likelihood of HPAI outbreaks.
野生鸟类被怀疑在西孟加拉邦高致病性禽流感（HPAI）H5N1疫情中发挥了作用。聚类分析表明，2008年至2010年间，H5N1至少3次传入西孟加拉邦。我们通过一个随机连续时间数学模型模拟了野生鸟类引入H5N1及其与家禽的接触情况。结果表明，减少野生鸟类与家禽之间的接触，提高受感染家禽群落的扑杀率，将降低疫情爆发的可能性。与野生鸟类共享栖息地的家禽群落或以前发生过疫情地区的家禽群落更有可能遭受疫情。这些结果表明，野生鸟类可将高致病性禽流感传播到家禽中，限制它们在共享栖息地的接触，同时迅速扑杀受感染的家禽，可大大降低高致病性禽流感疫情爆发的可能性。
