Department of Health Services Management and Policy, Kyushu University Graduate School of Medicine, Higashi-ku, Fukuoka, 812-8582, Japan,
Soc Psychiatry Psychiatr Epidemiol. 2014 Feb;49(2):221-9. doi: 10.1007/s00127-013-0741-8. Epub 2013 Jul 14.
An analysis model based on monthly or fortnight data is inadequate to precisely evaluate the impact of media reporting of suicide on suicide rates as well as the time lag from exposure to the report of a suicide. Thus, we used daily time-series data and examined the association between newspaper articles on suicide and suicide attempts in Japan.
The Box-Jenkins transfer function model was applied to daily time-series data for the period March 27-May 21, 2008.
Newspaper articles on suicide using hydrogen sulfide at (t - 1) were related to suicide attempts at (t) (ps < 0.001 and 0.05). Newspaper articles on suicides using hydrogen sulfide on the front page at (t - 1) were related to suicide attempts at (t) (p < 0.00). The magnitude of the impact of newspaper articles about suicide at (t - 1) or (t - 3) on "copy-cat" suicide attempts became greater as the number of news articles violating the media suicide recommendations increased.
The time lag between exposure to newspaper reports of suicide and attempts was 1 or 3 days, and the magnitude of the impact of front page articles was about four times as great as that of suicide articles in general.
基于月度或双周数据的分析模型不足以精确评估媒体对自杀事件的报道对自杀率的影响，以及从接触到自杀报道到发生自杀的时间滞后。因此，我们使用了每日时间序列数据，并研究了日本报纸上的自杀报道与自杀未遂之间的关联。
应用 Box-Jenkins 传递函数模型对 2008 年 3 月 27 日至 5 月 21 日期间的每日时间序列数据进行分析。
使用（t-1）日氢化物自杀的报纸文章与（t）日自杀未遂相关（p<0.001 和 0.05）。使用（t-1）日氢化物自杀的报纸头版文章与（t）日自杀未遂相关（p<0.00）。随着违反媒体自杀建议的新闻文章数量的增加，（t-1）日或（t-3）日关于自杀的报纸文章对“模仿自杀”的影响程度变得更大。
接触自杀报道与尝试自杀之间的时间滞后为 1 或 3 天，头版文章的影响程度大约是一般自杀文章的四倍。
