Traffic Inj Prev. 2013;14(6):630-8. doi: 10.1080/15389588.2012.736649.
The objective of this study was to examine the effects of various roadway characteristics on the incidence of pedestrian-vehicle crashes by developing a set of crash prediction models on 543 km of Malaysia federal roads over a 4-year time span between 2007 and 2010.
Four count models including the Poisson, negative binomial (NB), hurdle Poisson (HP), and hurdle negative binomial (HNB) models were developed and compared to model the number of pedestrian crashes.
The results indicated the presence of overdispersion in the pedestrian crashes (PCs) and showed that it is due to excess zero rather than variability in the crash data. To handle the issue, the hurdle Poisson model was found to be the best model among the considered models in terms of comparative measures. Moreover, the variables average daily traffic, heavy vehicle traffic, speed limit, land use, and area type were significantly associated with PCs.
本研究旨在通过开发一套在 2007 年至 2010 年期间跨越 543 公里的马来西亚联邦道路上进行的 4 年时间跨度的碰撞预测模型，研究各种道路特征对行人与车辆碰撞发生率的影响。
开发了四个计数模型，包括泊松、负二项式 (NB)、跳跃泊松 (HP) 和跳跃负二项式 (HNB) 模型，并对行人碰撞数量进行了比较。
结果表明，行人碰撞（PCs）存在过度分散，并表明这是由于零碰撞过多而不是碰撞数据的可变性。为了解决这个问题，在考虑的模型中，跳跃泊松模型在比较指标方面被发现是最好的模型。此外，平均日交通量、重型车辆交通量、限速、土地利用和区域类型等变量与 PCs 显著相关。
