Hodges Juliet Elizabeth Natasha, Vamshi Raghu, Holmes Christopher, Rowson Matthew, Miah Taqmina, Price Oliver Richard
Unilever, Safety & Environmental Assurance Centre, Colworth Science Park, Sharnbrook, United Kingdom.
Integr Environ Assess Manag. 2014 Apr;10(2):237-46. doi: 10.1002/ieam.1476. Epub 2013 Dec 20.
Environmental risk assessment of chemicals is reliant on good estimates of product usage information and robust exposure models. Over the past 20 to 30 years, much progress has been made with the development of exposure models that simulate the transport and distribution of chemicals in the environment. However, little progress has been made in our ability to estimate chemical emissions of home and personal care (HPC) products. In this project, we have developed an approach to estimate subnational emission inventory of chemical ingredients used in HPC products for 12 Asian countries including Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, India, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Vietnam (Asia-12). To develop this inventory, we have coupled a 1 km grid of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) estimates with market research data of HPC product sales. We explore the necessity of accounting for a population's ability to purchase HPC products in determining their subnational distribution in regions where wealth is not uniform. The implications of using high resolution data on inter- and intracountry subnational emission estimates for a range of hypothetical and actual HPC product types were explored. It was demonstrated that for low value products (<500 US$ per capita/annum required to purchase product) the maximum deviation from baseline (emission distributed via population) is less than a factor of 3 and it would not result in significant differences in chemical risk assessments. However, for other product types (>500 US$ per capita/annum required to purchase product) the implications on emissions being assigned to subnational regions can vary by several orders of magnitude. The implications of this on conducting national or regional level risk assessments may be significant. Further work is needed to explore the implications of this variability in HPC emissions to enable the HPC industry and/or governments to advance risk-based chemical management policies in emerging markets.
化学品的环境风险评估依赖于对产品使用信息的准确估计和可靠的暴露模型。在过去二三十年里，模拟化学品在环境中迁移和扩散的暴露模型有了很大进展。然而，在估计家用和个人护理（HPC）产品的化学品排放量方面进展甚微。在本项目中，我们开发了一种方法来估算包括孟加拉国、柬埔寨、中国、印度、印度尼西亚、老挝、马来西亚、巴基斯坦、菲律宾、斯里兰卡、泰国和越南在内的12个亚洲国家（亚洲12国）HPC产品中化学成分的次国家排放清单。为编制该清单，我们将人均国内生产总值（GDP）估计值的1公里网格数据与HPC产品销售的市场研究数据相结合。我们探讨了在财富不均的地区确定HPC产品次国家分布时考虑人口购买HPC产品能力的必要性。还探讨了使用高分辨率数据对一系列假设和实际HPC产品类型的国家间和国家内次国家排放估计的影响。结果表明，对于低价产品（购买产品人均每年所需<500美元），与基线（按人口分布排放）的最大偏差小于3倍，且不会导致化学风险评估出现显著差异。然而，对于其他产品类型（购买产品人均每年所需>500美元），分配到次国家区域的排放影响可能相差几个数量级。这对进行国家或区域层面的风险评估可能具有重大意义。需要进一步开展工作，以探讨HPC排放这种变异性的影响，使HPC行业和/或政府能够在新兴市场推进基于风险的化学品管理政策。
