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平原湖泊中巨脂鲤(Colossoma macropomum,居维叶,1816年)生长的建模:模型选择与多模型推断

Modelling the growth of tambaqui, Colossoma macropomum (Cuvier, 1816) in floodplain lakes: model selection and multimodel inference.

作者信息

Costa L R F, Barthem R B, Albernaz A L, Bittencourt M M, Villacorta-Corrêa M A

机构信息

Coordenação de Zoologia, Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi - MPEG, CP 399, Terra-Firme, CEP 66077-830, Belém, PA, Brazil.

出版信息

Braz J Biol. 2013 May;73(2):397-403. doi: 10.1590/S1519-69842013000200021.

DOI:10.1590/S1519-69842013000200021
PMID:23917568
Abstract

The tambaqui, Colossoma macropomum, is one of the most commercially valuable Amazonian fish species, and in the floodplains of the region, they are caught in both rivers and lakes. Most growth studies on this species to date have adjusted only one growth model, the von Bertalanffy, without considering its possible uncertainties. In this study, four different models (von Bertalanffy, Logistic, Gompertz and the general model of Schnüte-Richards) were adjusted to a data set of fish caught within lakes from the middle Solimões River. These models were adjusted by non-linear equations, using the sample size of each age class as its weight. The adjustment evaluation of each model was based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the variation of AIC between the models (Δi) and the evidence weights (wi). Both the Logistic (Δi = 0.0) and Gompertz (Δi = 1.12) models were supported by the data, but neither of them was clearly superior (wi, respectively 52.44 and 29.95%). Thus, we propose the use of an averaged-model to estimate the asymptotic length (L∞). The averaged-model, based on Logistic and Gompertz models, resulted in an estimate of L∞=90.36, indicating that the tambaqui would take approximately 25 years to reach average size.

摘要

巨脂鲤(Colossoma macropomum)是亚马逊地区最具商业价值的鱼类之一,在该地区的河漫滩,人们在河流和湖泊中均可捕获这种鱼。迄今为止,针对该物种的大多数生长研究仅采用了一种生长模型,即冯·贝塔朗菲模型,而未考虑其可能存在的不确定性。在本研究中,对从索利蒙伊斯河中游湖泊捕获的鱼类数据集拟合了四种不同模型(冯·贝塔朗菲模型、逻辑斯蒂模型、冈珀茨模型和施努特 - 理查兹通用模型)。这些模型通过非线性方程进行拟合,以每个年龄组的样本量作为权重。每个模型的拟合评估基于赤池信息准则(AIC)、模型间AIC的变化(Δi)和证据权重(wi)。数据支持逻辑斯蒂模型(Δi = 0.0)和冈珀茨模型(Δi = 1.12),但二者均未明显占优(wi分别为52.44%和29.95%)。因此,我们建议使用平均模型来估计渐近体长(L∞)。基于逻辑斯蒂模型和冈珀茨模型的平均模型得出L∞ = 90.36的估计值,这表明巨脂鲤达到平均大小大约需要25年。

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