School of Psychology, Bangor University, Bangor, UK.
J Appl Res Intellect Disabil. 2013 Sep;26(5):394-403. doi: 10.1111/jar.12029.
The purpose of the present study was to add to the literature on the predictive accuracy of a dynamic intellectual disability specific risk assessment tool.
A dynamic risk assessment for sexual reoffending (ARMIDILO-S), a static risk assessment for sexual offending (STATIC-99), and a static risk assessment for violence (Violence Risk Appraisal Guide [VRAG]) were completed for a sample of 64 adult males with an intellectual disability.
The dynamic risk assessment for sexual offenders with an intellectual disability resulted in the best prediction of sexual reoffending (ARMIDILO-S area under the curve (AUC) = 0.92) this was better than an established sexual offending static risk assessment (STATIC-99 AUC = 0.75). A static tool for violent reoffending, did not perform as well in this group (VRAG AUC = 0.58).
Results suggest that dynamic variables are useful in predicting sexual reoffending with individuals with an intellectual disability, confirming previous findings. The ARMIDILO-S is a promising dynamic risk assessment for individuals with an intellectual disability.
本研究旨在为智力障碍者特定的动态智力障碍风险评估工具的预测准确性提供更多的文献资料。
对 64 名成年男性智力障碍者进行了动态性犯罪风险评估（ARMIDILO-S）、静态性犯罪风险评估（STATIC-99）和静态暴力风险评估（暴力风险评估指南 [VRAG]）。
智力障碍者性犯罪的动态风险评估（ARMIDILO-S 曲线下面积（AUC）= 0.92）对性再犯的预测效果最好，优于既定的性犯罪静态风险评估（STATIC-99 AUC = 0.75）。在这组人群中，针对暴力再犯的静态工具表现不佳（VRAG AUC = 0.58）。
结果表明，动态变量对于预测智力障碍者的性再犯是有用的，这证实了之前的发现。ARMIDILO-S 是一种很有前途的针对智力障碍者的动态风险评估工具。
