Snowden Robert J, Gray Nicola S, Taylor John, MacCulloch Malcolm J
School of Psychology, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK.
Psychol Med. 2007 Nov;37(11):1539-49. doi: 10.1017/S0033291707000876. Epub 2007 May 31.
Actuarial instruments may be useful in predicting long-term violence in mentally disordered patients. We compared two instruments that differ in terms of what they are designed to predict (general versus violent recividism) and the inclusion of stable mental health variables.
A large sample of mentally disordered patients were scored on two risk assessment instruments, the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) and the Offender Group Reconviction Scale (OGRS), based on information at the point of discharge. Their criminal histories for at least 2 years following discharge were obtained from official records.
Both instruments were good predictors of both violent and general offending. Over shorter periods (0.85], which were significantly better than the OGRS. For longer follow-up periods the instruments had approximately equal prediction accuracy. However, both instruments predicted far more offences than were in fact recorded.
The VRAG is a very good predictor of future violence in the UK sample. The OGRS may also be of value as it can be completed quickly and without the need for mental health variables. Caution is needed, however, as both instruments appeared to over-predict the levels of reconvictions in this sample.
精算工具可能有助于预测精神障碍患者的长期暴力行为。我们比较了两种工具，它们在设计目的（一般再犯与暴力再犯）以及是否纳入稳定的心理健康变量方面存在差异。
根据出院时的信息，对大量精神障碍患者样本在两种风险评估工具上进行评分，这两种工具分别是暴力风险评估指南（VRAG）和罪犯再定罪量表（OGRS）。从官方记录中获取他们出院后至少2年的犯罪史。
两种工具都是暴力犯罪和一般犯罪的良好预测指标。在较短时期（0.85]，VRAG的预测准确性显著高于OGRS。在较长的随访期内，两种工具的预测准确性大致相当。然而，两种工具预测的犯罪数量都远远超过实际记录的数量。
在英国样本中，VRAG是未来暴力行为的良好预测指标。OGRS也可能有价值，因为它可以快速完成，且无需心理健康变量。然而，需要谨慎，因为在这个样本中，两种工具似乎都过度预测了再定罪的水平。
