Clinical Psychology Department, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand.
J Child Psychol Psychiatry. 2013 Dec;54(12):1295-307. doi: 10.1111/jcpp.12126. Epub 2013 Aug 9.
To assess the postintervention arson recidivism and other offending rates of a group of 182 firesetting children and adolescents referred to the New Zealand Fire Awareness and Intervention Program (FAIP) over a follow-up period of 10 years. To investigate predictors of offending behaviour as well as variables associated with previous involvement in firesetting behaviour and offending severity.
Data collected at the time of the FAIP intervention was provided by the New Zealand Fire Service and the offence histories of the sample were accessed from the New Zealand Police database (NIA). Data were analyzed using both descriptive and inferential statistics.
Although the arson recidivism rate was low (2%), rates of general offending were high, with 59% of the sample having committed an offence during the follow-up period. Fifteen percent of the sample was classified as severe offenders, 40% as moderate and 4% as minor. Of offenders, 12.6% had been imprisoned during the follow-up period. Offending was predicted by experience of abuse and a previous firesetting behaviour at the time of the FAIP intervention. Living with both parents at the time of intervention decreased the probability of an individual engaging in future offending behaviour. The presence of family stress and a diagnosis of Attention Deficit Disorder or Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADD/ADHD) were associated with previous firesetting behaviour. In addition, involvement with family violence (as a perpetrator, complainant or victim) was associated with more severe offending behaviour.
In light of existing research, the findings of this study indicate that many firesetters are at risk for future offending and that identification of high-risk individuals is therefore an important consideration for any organization involved with firesetters. To minimize this risk, there is a need for a collaborative, multiagency approach to firesetting behaviour involving comprehensive risk assessment and appropriate referral for at-risk individuals.
评估一组 182 名被转介到新西兰防火意识和干预计划（FAIP）的纵火儿童和青少年在 10 年随访期后的纵火再犯率和其他犯罪率。调查犯罪行为的预测因素以及与纵火行为和犯罪严重程度相关的变量。
FAIP 干预时收集的数据由新西兰消防局提供，样本的犯罪记录从新西兰警察数据库（NIA）中获取。使用描述性和推断性统计数据进行分析。
尽管纵火再犯率较低（2%），但一般犯罪率较高，样本中有 59%在随访期间犯罪。样本中有 15%被归类为严重罪犯，40%为中度罪犯，4%为轻度罪犯。在随访期间，样本中有 12.6%的人被监禁。在 FAIP 干预时经历过虐待和之前的纵火行为预测了犯罪。在干预时与父母双方同住降低了个人未来犯罪行为的可能性。家庭压力的存在和注意力缺陷障碍或注意力缺陷多动障碍（ADD/ADHD）的诊断与之前的纵火行为有关。此外，涉及家庭暴力（作为施害者、投诉人或受害者）与更严重的犯罪行为有关。
根据现有研究，本研究的结果表明，许多纵火者有未来犯罪的风险，因此，对于任何与纵火者有关的组织来说，识别高风险个体是一个重要的考虑因素。为了降低这种风险，需要采取协作的、多机构的方法来处理纵火行为，包括全面的风险评估和对高风险个体的适当转介。
