Fisher Alexander, Martin Jodie, Srikusalanukul Wichat, Davis Michael
Department of Geriatric Medicine, The Canberra Hospital, Canberra, Australia; Australian National University Medical School, Canberra, Australia.
Australian National University Medical School, Canberra, Australia.
J Stroke Cerebrovasc Dis. 2014 Apr;23(4):759-70. doi: 10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2013.06.035. Epub 2013 Aug 6.
The objective of this study is (i) to evaluate trends in the incidence rates of stroke survivors aged 60 years and older over a 11-year period in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) and (ii) to forecast future trends in Australia until 2051.
Analysis of age- and sex-specific standardized incidence rates of older first-ever stroke survivors in ACT from 1999-2000 to 2009-2010 and projections of number of stroke survivors (NSS) in 2021 and 2051 using 2 models based only on (i) demographic changes and (ii) assuming changing of both incidence rates and demography.
In the ACT in the first decade of the 21st century, the absolute numbers and age-adjusted standardized incidence rates of stroke survivors (measured as a function of age and period) increased among both men and women aged 60 years or older. The trend toward increased survival rates in both sexes was driven mainly by population aging, whereas the effect of stroke year was more pronounced in men compared with women. The absolute NSS (and the financial burden to the society) in Australia is predicted to increase by 35.5%-59.3% in 2021 compared with 2011 and by 1.6- to 4.6-fold in 2051 if current only demographic (first number) or both demographic and incidence trends (second number) continue.
Our study demonstrates favorable trends in stroke survivor rates in Australia in the first decade of the new millennium and projects in the foreseeable future significant increases in the absolute numbers of older stroke survivors, especially among those aged 70 years or older and men.
本研究的目的是：（i）评估澳大利亚首都地区（ACT）60岁及以上中风幸存者在11年期间的发病率趋势；（ii）预测到2051年澳大利亚未来的趋势。
分析1999 - 2000年至2009 - 2010年ACT地区首次发生中风的老年幸存者的年龄和性别特异性标准化发病率，并使用两种模型预测2021年和2051年的中风幸存者数量（NSS），这两种模型分别基于：（i）人口变化；（ii）假设发病率和人口结构都发生变化。
在21世纪的第一个十年，ACT地区60岁及以上男性和女性中风幸存者的绝对数量和年龄调整后的标准化发病率（作为年龄和时期的函数测量）均有所增加。两性生存率上升的趋势主要由人口老龄化驱动，而中风年份的影响在男性中比在女性中更为明显。如果仅维持当前的人口趋势（第一个数字）或同时维持人口和发病率趋势（第二个数字），预计到2021年澳大利亚的绝对NSS（以及社会的经济负担）将比2011年增加35.5% - 59.3%，到2051年将增加1.6至4.6倍。
我们的研究表明，在新千年的第一个十年，澳大利亚中风幸存者率呈现出有利趋势，并预测在可预见的未来，老年中风幸存者的绝对数量将大幅增加，尤其是70岁及以上的人群和男性。
