UNC-Chapel Hill, Institute of Marine Sciences, 3431 Arendell Street, Morehead City, NC 28557, USA.
Water Res. 2013 Oct 1;47(15):5783-93. doi: 10.1016/j.watres.2013.06.050. Epub 2013 Jul 11.
Bacteria in the genus Vibrio are ubiquitous to estuarine waters worldwide and are often the dominant genus recovered from these environments. This genus contains several potentially pathogenic species, including Vibrio vulnificus, Vibrio cholerae, Vibrio parahaemolyticus, and Vibrio alginolyticus. These bacteria have short generation times, as low as 20-30 min, and can thus respond rapidly to changing environmental conditions. A five-parameter mechanistic model was generated based on environmental processes including hydrodynamics, growth, and death rates of Vibrio bacteria to predict total Vibrio abundance in the Neuse River Estuary of eastern North Carolina. Additionally an improved statistical model was developed using the easily monitored parameters of temperature and salinity. This updated model includes data that covers more than eight years of constant bacterial monitoring, and incorporates extreme weather events such as droughts, storms, and floods. These models can be used to identify days in which bacterial abundance might coincide with increased health risks.
弧菌属细菌在世界范围内的河口水域中普遍存在，并且通常是从这些环境中回收的优势属。该属包含几种潜在的致病性物种，包括创伤弧菌、霍乱弧菌、副溶血性弧菌和溶藻弧菌。这些细菌的世代时间很短，低至 20-30 分钟，因此可以快速响应环境条件的变化。根据包括水动力在内的环境过程，生成了一个五参数的机制模型，以预测北卡罗来纳州东部内斯河河口的总弧菌丰度。此外，还使用温度和盐度等易于监测的参数开发了一种改进的统计模型。该更新模型包括涵盖超过八年的恒定细菌监测数据，并纳入了干旱、风暴和洪水等极端天气事件。这些模型可用于确定细菌丰度可能与健康风险增加相吻合的日子。
