Alcohol-attributable fraction of ischemic heart disease mortality in Russia.

Objective. The aim of the present study was to estimate the premature ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality attributable to alcohol abuse in Russia on the basis of aggregate-level data of mortality and alcohol consumption. Method. Age-standardized sex-specific male and female IHD mortality data for the period 1980-2005 and data on overall alcohol consumption were analyzed by means of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series analysis. Results. The results of the analysis suggest that 41.1% of all male deaths and 30.7% of female deaths from IHD in Russia could be attributed to alcohol. The estimated alcohol-attributable fraction for men ranged from 24.0% (75+ age group) to 62.0% (15-29 age group) and for women from 20.0% (75+ age group) to 64.0% (30-44 age group). Conclusions. The outcomes of this study provide indirect support for the hypothesis that the high rate of IHD mortality in Russia may be related to alcohol, as indicated by a close aggregate-level association between number of deaths from IHD and overall alcohol consumption per capita.