Hoffman Kate, Vieira Veronica M, Daniels Julie L
J Autism Dev Disord. 2014 Mar;44(3):712-8. doi: 10.1007/s10803-013-1907-7.
We investigated differences in the geographic distribution of autism spectrum disorders (ASD) over time in central North Carolina with data from the Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network. Using generalized additive models and geographic information systems we produced maps of ASD risk in 2002–2004 and 2006–2008. Overall the risk of ASD increased 52.9 % from 2002–2004 to 2006–2008. However, the magnitude of change in risk was not uniform across the study area; while some areas experienced dramatic increases in ASD risk(>400 %), others experienced slight decreases. Generally,areas with the lowest risk in 2002–2004 experienced the greatest increases over time. Education and outreach efforts in North Carolina expanded during this period, possibly contributing to the observed leveling of risk over time.
我们利用自闭症及发育障碍监测网络的数据，对北卡罗来纳州中部自闭症谱系障碍（ASD）的地理分布随时间的差异进行了调查。我们使用广义相加模型和地理信息系统绘制了2002 - 2004年以及2006 - 2008年ASD风险地图。总体而言，从2002 - 2004年到2006 - 2008年，ASD风险增加了52.9%。然而，研究区域内风险变化的幅度并不均匀；一些地区的ASD风险急剧增加（超过400%），而另一些地区则略有下降。一般来说，2002 - 2004年风险最低的地区随时间推移增加幅度最大。在此期间，北卡罗来纳州的教育和宣传工作有所扩大，这可能是导致观察到的风险随时间趋于平稳的原因之一。
