Hoffman Kate, Weisskopf Marc G, Roberts Andrea L, Raz Raanan, Hart Jaime E, Lyall Kristen, Hoffman Elin M, Laden Francine, Vieira Verónica M
Am J Epidemiol. 2017 Oct 1;186(7):834-842. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwx158.
Data indicate that the prevalence of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) may be increasing and that it varies geographically. We investigated associations between residential location and ASD in the children of Nurses' Health Study II (United States) participants in order to generate hypotheses about social and environmental factors related to etiology or diagnosis. Analyses included data on 13,507 children born during 1989-1999 (486 with ASD). We explored relationships between ASD and residential location both at birth and at age 6 years (i.e., closer to average age at diagnosis). Generalized additive models were used to predict ASD odds across the United States. Children born in New England were 50% more likely to be diagnosed with ASD compared with children born elsewhere in the United States. Patterns were not explained by geographic variation in maternal age, birth year, child's sex, community income, or prenatal exposure to hazardous air pollutants, indicating that spatial variation is not attributable to these factors. Using the residential address at age 6 years produced similar results; however, areas of significantly decreased ASD odds were observed in the Southeast, where children were half as likely to have ASD. These results may indicate that diagnostic factors are driving spatial patterns; however, we cannot rule out the possibility that other environmental factors are influencing distributions.
数据表明,自闭症谱系障碍(ASD)的患病率可能在上升,且存在地域差异。我们调查了护士健康研究II(美国)参与者的子女的居住地点与ASD之间的关联,以便就与病因或诊断相关的社会和环境因素提出假设。分析纳入了1989年至1999年期间出生的13507名儿童的数据(486名患有ASD)。我们探讨了出生时和6岁时(即更接近诊断平均年龄)的居住地点与ASD之间的关系。使用广义相加模型预测美国各地患ASD的几率。与在美国其他地方出生的儿童相比,在新英格兰出生的儿童被诊断为ASD的可能性高50%。这些模式无法用母亲年龄、出生年份、孩子性别、社区收入或产前接触有害空气污染物的地理差异来解释,这表明空间差异并非归因于这些因素。使用6岁时的居住地址得出了类似的结果;然而,在东南部观察到ASD几率显著降低的地区,那里的儿童患ASD的可能性只有一半。这些结果可能表明诊断因素在推动空间模式;然而,我们不能排除其他环境因素影响分布的可能性。