Xie Yu, Killewald Alexandra
Population Studies Center, Institute for Social Research, 426 Thompson Street, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48106.
Am Econ Rev. 2013 Aug;103(5):2003-2020. doi: 10.1257/aer.103.5.2003.
Using historical census and survey data, Long and Ferrie (forthcoming) found a significant decline in social mobility in the United States from 1880 to 1973. We present two critiques of the Long-Ferrie study. First, the data quality of the Long-Ferrie study is more limiting than the authors acknowledge. Second, and more critically, they applied a method ill-suited for measuring social mobility of farmers in a comparative study between 1880 and 1973, a period in which the proportion of farmers dramatically declined in the U.S. We show that Long and Ferrie's main conclusion is all driven by this misleading result for farmers.
朗和费里(即将发表)利用历史人口普查和调查数据发现,1880年至1973年期间美国的社会流动性显著下降。我们对朗 - 费里的研究提出两点批评。第一,朗 - 费里研究的数据质量比作者所承认的更具局限性。第二,更关键的是,在1880年至1973年的比较研究中,他们应用了一种不适用于衡量农民社会流动性的方法,在此期间美国农民的比例急剧下降。我们表明,朗和费里的主要结论完全是由这一针对农民的误导性结果驱动的。