Molitor G T
Public Policy Forecasting, Inc., Potomac, MD 20854.
Environ Health Perspect. 1990 Jun;86:201-23. doi: 10.1289/ehp.9086201.
Global population may double by 2020 but the Malthusian specter of rapid population growth outracing slower increases in production will continue to be a false alarm. A vast array of agricultural technologies have the capacity to increase output 10-fold, perhaps as much as 100-fold. Discovery of a sweetener 54,000 times sweeter than sucrose (cane or beet sugar) indicates the magnitude of prodigious increases portended by new technologies. Productive agriculture, however, has become capital intense, limiting its availability in poorer nations. Increased production is the key to low prices and affordable supplies. In a world continuing to face starvation, there is no place for government policies purposely limiting supplies and artificially propping prices at high levels that place life-sustaining food beyond means of the poor. Affluence provides financial wherewithal to secure an adequate diet. Unfortunately, an estimated 25% of the world's population go hungry and face starvation. The specter of starvation may afflict as many as 600 million, and malnutrition, another 150 million by the year 2020. Improving self-sufficiency in these nations will remain a top humanitarian concern.
到2020年全球人口可能会翻一番，但马尔萨斯所担忧的人口快速增长超过生产增长速度的可怕情景仍将是虚惊一场。大量农业技术有能力将产量提高10倍，甚至可能高达100倍。一种甜度比蔗糖（甘蔗或甜菜糖）高54000倍的甜味剂的发现，表明了新技术预示的巨大增长幅度。然而，高产农业已变得资本密集，这限制了其在较贫穷国家的应用。增加产量是实现低价格和供应可承受的关键。在一个仍面临饥饿的世界里，政府政策绝不应故意限制供应并人为抬高价格，使维持生命的食物超出穷人的承受能力。富裕提供了获得充足饮食的资金。不幸的是，估计世界上25%的人口仍在挨饿并面临饥饿。到2020年，饥饿的幽灵可能会折磨多达6亿人，营养不良的人数可能会再增加1.5亿。提高这些国家的自给自足能力仍将是首要的人道主义关切。
