Land Economy and Environment Research Group, SRUC, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JG, UK.
J R Soc Interface. 2013 Sep 11;10(88):20130656. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2013.0656. Print 2013 Nov 6.
Biomass produced from energy crops, such as Miscanthus and short rotation coppice is expected to contribute to renewable energy targets, but the slower than anticipated development of the UK market implies the need for greater understanding of the factors that govern adoption. Here, we apply an agent-based model of the UK perennial energy crop market, including the contingent interaction of supply and demand, to understand the spatial and temporal dynamics of energy crop adoption. Results indicate that perennial energy crop supply will be between six and nine times lower than previously published, because of time lags in adoption arising from a spatial diffusion process. The model simulates time lags of at least 20 years, which is supported empirically by the analogue of oilseed rape adoption in the UK from the 1970s. This implies the need to account for time lags arising from spatial diffusion in evaluating land-use change, climate change (mitigation or adaptation) or the adoption of novel technologies.
从能源作物（如芒草和短轮伐期）中产生的生物质有望有助于实现可再生能源目标，但英国市场的发展速度低于预期，这意味着需要更好地了解控制采用的因素。在这里，我们应用了英国多年生能源作物市场的基于主体的模型，包括供应和需求的偶然相互作用，以了解能源作物采用的空间和时间动态。结果表明，由于采用的空间扩散过程导致的时间滞后，多年生能源作物的供应将比以前公布的低六到九倍。该模型模拟了至少 20 年的时间滞后，这得到了英国从 20 世纪 70 年代开始采用油菜籽的类似物的实证支持。这意味着在评估土地利用变化、气候变化（缓解或适应）或采用新技术时，需要考虑到空间扩散引起的时间滞后。
