Net Zero and Resilient Farming, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Hertfordshire AL5 2JQ, UK.
Net Zero and Resilient Farming, Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Hertfordshire AL5 2JQ, UK.
Sci Total Environ. 2023 Nov 20;900:166390. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166390. Epub 2023 Aug 17.
Reductions in CO emissions are essential to support the UK in achieving its net zero policy objective by around mid-century. Both changing climate and land use change (LUC) offer an opportunity to deploy suitable bioenergy crops strategically to enhance energy production and C sequestration to help deliver net zero through capturing atmospheric CO. Against this background, we applied process-based models to evaluate the extent of net primary productivity (NPP) losses/gains associated with perennial bioenergy crops and to assess their C sequestration potential under changing climate in the upper River Taw observatory catchment in southwest England. In so doing, we also determined whether LUC from permanent grassland to perennial bioenergy crops, considered in this study, can increase the production and C sequestration potential in the study area. The results show that a warming climate positively impacts the production of all crops considered (permanent grassland, Miscanthus and two cultivars of short rotation coppice (SRC) willow). Overall, Miscanthus provides higher aboveground biomass for energy compared to willow and grassland whereas the broadleaf willow cultivar 'Endurance' is best suited, among all crops considered, for C sequestration in this environment, and more so in the changing climate. In warmer lowlands, LUC from permanent grassland to Miscanthus and in cooler uplands from permanent grassland to 'Endurance', enhances NPP. Colder areas are predicted to benefit more from changing climate in terms of above and belowground biomass for both Miscanthus and willow. The study shows that the above LUC can help augment non-fossil energy production and increase C sequestration potential if C losses from land conversion do not exceed the benefits from LUC. In the wake of a changing climate, aboveground biomass for bioenergy and belowground biomass to enhance carbon sequestration can be managed by the careful selection of bioenergy crops and targeted deployment within certain climatic zones.
减少二氧化碳排放对于英国实现到本世纪中叶实现净零政策目标至关重要。气候变化和土地利用变化（LUC）都为战略性地部署合适的生物能源作物提供了机会，以提高能源生产和碳固存能力，从而通过捕获大气中的二氧化碳来实现净零排放。在此背景下，我们应用基于过程的模型来评估与多年生生物能源作物相关的净初级生产力（NPP）损失/增益的程度，并评估它们在英国西南部上塔维斯托克观测流域变化气候下的碳固存潜力。在这样做的过程中，我们还确定了本研究中考虑的从永久性草地到多年生生物能源作物的土地利用变化是否可以增加研究区域的生产力和碳固存潜力。结果表明，气候变暖对所有考虑的作物（永久性草地、芒草和两种短轮伐期柳树品种）的生产都有积极影响。总的来说，与柳树和草地相比，芒草提供了更高的地上生物质用于能源生产，而在所有考虑的作物中，宽叶柳树品种“耐力”最适合在这种环境中进行碳固存，在变化的气候中更是如此。在较温暖的低地，从永久性草地向芒草的土地利用变化，以及在较凉爽的高地从永久性草地向“耐力”的土地利用变化，都可以提高 NPP。就芒草和柳树的地上和地下生物量而言，较寒冷的地区可能会从气候变化中受益更多。该研究表明，如果土地转换造成的碳损失不超过土地利用变化带来的收益，那么上述土地利用变化可以帮助增加非化石能源的生产并提高碳固存潜力。在气候变化的背景下，可以通过仔细选择生物能源作物和在特定气候区有针对性地部署来管理生物能源作物的地上生物量和增强碳固存的地下生物量。
