Can early host responses to mycobacterial infection predict eventual disease outcomes?

Diagnostic tests used for Johne's disease in sheep either have poor sensitivity and specificity or only detect disease in later stages of infection. Predicting which of the infected sheep are likely to become infectious later in life is currently not feasible and continues to be a major hindrance in disease control. We conducted this longitudinal study to investigate if a suite of diagnostic tests conducted in Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) exposed lambs at 4 months post infection can accurately predict their clinical status at 12 months post infection. We tracked cellular and humoral responses and quantity of MAP shedding for up to 12 months post challenge in 20 controls and 37 exposed sheep. Infection was defined at necropsy by tissue culture and disease spectrum by lesion type. Data were analysed using univariable and multivariable logistic regression models and a subset of variables from the earliest period post inoculation (4 months) was selected for predicting disease outcomes later on (12 months). Sensitivity and specificity of tests and their combinations in series and parallel were determined. Early elevation in faecal MAP DNA quantity and a lower interferon gamma (IFNγ) response were significantly associated with sheep becoming infectious as well as progressing to severe disease. Conversely, early low faecal MAP DNA and higher interleukin-10 responses were significantly associated with an exposed animal developing protective immunity. Combination of early elevated faecal MAP DNA or lower IFNγ response had the highest sensitivity (75%) and specificity (81%) for identifying sheep that would become infectious. Collectively, these results highlight the potential for combined test interpretation to aid in the early prediction of sheep susceptibility to MAP infection.