The effect of bundled payment on emergency department use: alternative quality contract effects after year one.

OBJECTIVES

The objective was to identify the effect of the Alternative Quality Contract (AQC), a global payment system implemented by Blue Cross Blue Shield (BCBS) of Massachusetts in 2009, on emergency department (ED) presentations.

METHODS

Blue Cross Blue Shield of Massachusetts claims from 2006 through 2009 for 332,624 enrollees whose primary care physicians (PCPs) enrolled in the AQC, and 1,296,399 whose PCPs were not enrolled in the AQC, were evaluated. A pre-post, intervention-control, propensity-scored difference-in-difference approach was used to isolate the AQC effect on ED visits. The analysis adjusted for age, sex, health status, and secular trends to compare ED use between the treatment and control groups.

RESULTS

Overall, secular trends showed that the number of ED visits decreased slightly for both treatment and control groups. The adjusted analysis of the AQC group showed decreases from 0.131 to 0.127 visits per member/quarter, and the control group decreased from 0.157 to 0.152 visits per member/quarter. The difference-in-difference analysis showed the AQC had no statistically significant effect on total ED use compared to the control group.

CONCLUSIONS

In the first year of this AQC, we did not find evidence of change in aggregate ED use. Similar global budget programs may not alter ED use in the initial implementation period.