Ilic M, Vlajinac H, Marinkovic J, Blazic Z
Department of Epidemiology, Faculty of Medical Sciences, University of Kragujevac, Kragujevac, Serbia.
J BUON. 2013 Jul-Sep;18(3):723-7.
To estimate the death rates for lung cancer and their secular trends in the population of Serbia, excluding the autonomous province of Kosovo and Metohia, over the 1991-2009 period.
A descriptive epidemiological method was employed. Trend of the lung cancer mortality rates was estimated using joinpoint linear regression analysis. An average annual percentage of change (AAPC) was computed for trend using linear models assuming a Poisson distribution, and the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI).
The mortality rate from lung cancer in Serbia ranks as the highest in the world, and it has been increasing continuously from 1991 (AAPC = + 1.9; 95% CI=1.7-2.2). A significant increase in mortality was present in both the male population (AAPC = + 1.4; 95% CI=1.2-1.6), and the female population (AAPC = + 3.9; 95% CI=3.6-4.3). However, a significant decline in lung cancer mortality in men was seen in some age groups. In young men (35-39 and 40-44 years age groups), lung cancer death rates decreased continuously from 1991, by - 5.1% and - 2.6% per year, respectively. Among men in the 45-49 years age group, a marked increase of lung cancer mortality was observed from 1991 to 1998 (by + 6.5% per year), followed by significant decrease (- 1.9% per year). Among women, only in the youngest age group (35-39 years) a declining trend was present (- 0.6% per year), yet without significance.
Lung cancer mortality rates in Serbia indicate the importance of consistent application of measures of primary and secondary prevention that have been proven effective in other countries.
估算1991 - 2009年期间塞尔维亚（不包括科索沃和梅托希亚自治区）人群中肺癌死亡率及其长期趋势。
采用描述性流行病学方法。使用连接点线性回归分析估算肺癌死亡率趋势。使用假设泊松分布的线性模型计算趋势的平均年度变化百分比（AAPC）及其相应的95%置信区间（CI）。
塞尔维亚的肺癌死亡率位居世界最高水平，自1991年以来持续上升（AAPC = + 1.9；95% CI = 1.7 - 2.2）。男性人群（AAPC = + 1.4；95% CI = 1.2 - 1.6）和女性人群（AAPC = + 3.9；95% CI = 3.6 - 4.3）的死亡率均显著上升。然而，部分年龄组男性的肺癌死亡率出现显著下降。在年轻男性（35 - 39岁和40 - 44岁年龄组）中，肺癌死亡率自1991年起持续下降，每年分别下降 - 5.1%和 - 2.6%。在45 - 49岁年龄组的男性中，1991年至1998年肺癌死亡率显著上升（每年 + 6.5%），随后显著下降（每年 - 1.9%）。在女性中，仅最年轻年龄组（35 - 39岁）呈下降趋势（每年 - 0.6%），但无统计学意义。
塞尔维亚的肺癌死亡率表明持续应用在其他国家已被证明有效的一级和二级预防措施的重要性。
