Department of Psychology.
Psychol Methods. 2013 Dec;18(4):435-53. doi: 10.1037/a0033269. Epub 2013 Sep 30.
With fixed predictors, the standard method (Cohen, Cohen, West, & Aiken, 2003, p. 86; Harris, 2001, p. 80; Hays, 1994, p. 709) for computing confidence intervals (CIs) for standardized regression coefficients fails to account for the sampling variability of the criterion standard deviation. With random predictors, this method also fails to account for the sampling variability of the predictor standard deviations. Nevertheless, under some conditions the standard method will produce CIs with accurate coverage rates. To delineate these conditions, we used a Monte Carlo simulation to compute empirical CI coverage rates in samples drawn from 36 populations with a wide range of data characteristics. We also computed the empirical CI coverage rates for 4 alternative methods that have been discussed in the literature: noncentrality interval estimation, the delta method, the percentile bootstrap, and the bias-corrected and accelerated bootstrap. Our results showed that for many data-parameter configurations--for example, sample size, predictor correlations, coefficient of determination (R²), orientation of β with respect to the eigenvectors of the predictor correlation matrix, RX--the standard method produced coverage rates that were close to their expected values. However, when population R² was large and when β approached the last eigenvector of RX, then the standard method coverage rates were frequently below the nominal rate (sometimes by a considerable amount). In these conditions, the delta method and the 2 bootstrap procedures were consistently accurate. Results using noncentrality interval estimation were inconsistent. In light of these findings, we recommend that researchers use the delta method to evaluate the sampling variability of standardized regression coefficients.
对于固定预测变量,标准方法(Cohen、Cohen、West 和 Aiken,2003 年,第 86 页;Harris,2001 年,第 80 页;Hays,1994 年,第 709 页)计算标准化回归系数的置信区间(CI)时,无法考虑到标准偏差的抽样变异性。对于随机预测变量,该方法也无法考虑到预测变量标准差的抽样变异性。尽管如此,在某些条件下,标准方法仍会产生具有准确覆盖率的 CI。为了阐明这些条件,我们使用蒙特卡罗模拟方法,在从具有广泛数据特征的 36 个群体中抽取的样本中计算经验 CI 覆盖率。我们还计算了文献中讨论的 4 种替代方法的经验 CI 覆盖率:非中心区间估计、Delta 方法、百分位 bootstrap 和偏置校正和加速 bootstrap。我们的结果表明,对于许多数据-参数配置,例如样本大小、预测变量相关性、决定系数(R²)、β相对于预测变量相关矩阵的特征向量的方向、RX,标准方法产生的覆盖率接近其预期值。然而,当群体 R²较大且β接近 RX 的最后一个特征向量时,标准方法的覆盖率经常低于名义率(有时幅度相当大)。在这些条件下,Delta 方法和 2 个 bootstrap 程序始终准确。使用非中心区间估计的结果不一致。鉴于这些发现,我们建议研究人员使用 Delta 方法评估标准化回归系数的抽样变异性。