From the Center for Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics (MGS, PLK, JEK, DX) and Department of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation (MGS), University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia; Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Albany, New York (BEB); Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, Albany Medical College, New York (BEB); VA HSR&D/RR&D Rehabilitation Outcomes Research Center, REAP North Florida/South Georgia Veterans Health System, Gainesville, Florida (DCR); and Department of Health Outcomes and Policy, College of Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville (DCR).
Am J Phys Med Rehabil. 2014 Mar;93(3):217-30. doi: 10.1097/PHM.0b013e3182a92bfb.
The aim of this study was to develop an index for establishing the probability of being discharged home after hospitalization for acute stroke using information about previous living circumstances, comorbidities, hospital course, and the physical grades and cognitive stages of independence achieved.
This is a longitudinal observational population-based study. All 6515 persons treated for acute stroke who received rehabilitation services in 110 Veterans Affairs facilities within a 2-yr period were included.
There were eight independent predictors of home discharge identified, and points were assigned through logistic regression: married (2 points); location before hospitalization (extended care = 0 points, other hospital = 9 points, home = 11 points); discharge physical grade (grade I, II, or III = 0 points; grade IV or V = 3 points; grade VI or VII = 5 points); discharge cognitive stage (stage I = 0 points; stage II, III, IV, or V = 3 points; stage VI or VII = 5 points); and absence of liver disease (2 points), mechanical ventilation (3 points), nonoral feeding (2 points), and intensive care unit admission (1 point). The points were added for all present factors to calculate scores. The probabilities of home discharge ranged from 65.03% in the least likely (≤21 points) to 98.24% in the most likely group (≥27 points).
The treatment team might apply prognostic estimates from this index in discharge planning and functional goal setting after initial physical medicine and rehabilitation assessment.
本研究旨在开发一个指数,用于根据既往居住环境、合并症、住院过程以及所达到的身体独立程度和认知阶段等信息,预测急性脑卒中患者住院后的出院可能性。
这是一项纵向观察性基于人群的研究。在 2 年内,共有 110 家退伍军人事务设施中接受康复服务的 6515 名急性脑卒中患者纳入本研究。
确定了 8 个独立的出院预测因素,并通过逻辑回归分配了分数:已婚(2 分);住院前位置(长期护理=0 分,其他医院=9 分,家庭=11 分);出院时的身体等级(等级 I、II 或 III=0 分;等级 IV 或 V=3 分;等级 VI 或 VII=5 分);出院认知阶段(阶段 I=0 分;阶段 II、III、IV 或 V=3 分;阶段 VI 或 VII=5 分);无肝脏疾病(2 分)、机械通气(3 分)、非口服喂养(2 分)和重症监护病房入院(1 分)。为所有存在的因素添加分数以计算总分。出院可能性的范围从最不可能的(≤21 分)的 65.03%到最有可能的(≥27 分)的 98.24%。
在初始物理医学和康复评估后,治疗团队可以根据该指数的预后估计值来进行出院计划和功能目标设定。