European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen, Via Enrico Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra (VA), Italy.
J Fish Biol. 2013 Oct;83(4):921-38. doi: 10.1111/jfb.12236.
A medium-term (10 year) stochastic forecast model is developed and presented for mixed fisheries that can provide estimations of age-specific parameters for a maximum of 10 stocks and 10 fisheries. Designed to support fishery managers dealing with complex, multi-annual management plans, the model can be used to quantitatively test the consequences of various stock-specific and fishery-specific decisions, using non-equilibrium stock dynamics. Such decisions include fishing restrictions and other strategies aimed at achieving sustainable mixed fisheries consistent with the concept of maximum sustainable yield (MSY). In order to test the model, recently gathered data on seven stocks and four fisheries operating in the Ligurian and North Tyrrhenian Seas are used to generate quantitative, 10 year predictions of biomass and catch trends under four different management scenarios. The results show that using the fishing mortality at MSY as the biological reference point for the management of all stocks would be a strong incentive to reduce the technical interactions among concurrent fishing strategies. This would optimize the stock-specific exploitation and be consistent with sustainability criteria.
开发并提出了一个中期（10 年）随机预测模型，用于混合渔业，可以为多达 10 个种群和 10 个渔业提供特定年龄的参数估计。该模型旨在为处理复杂的多年管理计划的渔业管理者提供支持，可用于使用非平衡种群动态来定量测试各种特定种群和渔业特定决策的后果。这些决策包括旨在实现可持续混合渔业的捕捞限制和其他策略，符合最大可持续产量 (MSY) 的概念。为了测试该模型，使用最近在利古里亚和北提雷尼亚海作业的七个种群和四个渔业的数据生成了四种不同管理情景下生物量和捕捞趋势的 10 年定量预测。结果表明，将所有种群的 MSY 渔获死亡率用作管理的生物学参考点，将强烈鼓励减少同时进行的捕捞策略之间的技术相互作用。这将优化种群特定的开发，并符合可持续性标准。
