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识别 1959-1961 年中国大跃进饥荒对婴儿死亡率的代际影响。

Identifying the intergenerational effects of the 1959-1961 Chinese Great Leap Forward Famine on infant mortality.

机构信息

Queens College & CUNY Institute for Demographic Research, City University of New York, 65-30 Kissena Blvd., Queens, NY 11367, USA.

出版信息

Econ Hum Biol. 2013 Dec;11(4):474-87. doi: 10.1016/j.ehb.2013.08.001. Epub 2013 Sep 12.

Abstract

Using the 1959-1961 Chinese Great Leap Forward Famine as a natural experiment, this study examines the relationship between mothers' prenatal exposure to acute malnutrition and their children's infant mortality risk. According to the results, the effect of mothers' prenatal famine exposure status on children's infant mortality risk depends on the level of famine severity. In regions of low famine severity, mothers' prenatal famine exposure significantly reduces children's infant mortality, whereas in regions of high famine severity, such prenatal exposure increases children's infant mortality although the effect is not statistically significant. Such a curvilinear relationship between mothers' prenatal malnutrition status and their children's infant mortality risk is more complicated than the linear relationship predicted by the original fetal origins hypothesis but is consistent with the more recent developmental origins of health and disease theory.

摘要

利用 1959-1961 年中国大跃进饥荒作为自然实验,本研究考察了母亲产前暴露于急性营养不良与子女婴儿死亡率风险之间的关系。结果表明,母亲产前饥荒暴露状况对子女婴儿死亡率风险的影响取决于饥荒严重程度的水平。在饥荒严重程度低的地区,母亲产前饥荒暴露显著降低了子女的婴儿死亡率,而在饥荒严重程度高的地区,这种产前暴露则增加了子女的婴儿死亡率,尽管这种影响在统计学上并不显著。与最初的胎儿起源假说所预测的线性关系相比,母亲产前营养不良状况与子女婴儿死亡率风险之间的这种曲线关系更为复杂,但与健康和疾病的发育起源理论更为一致。

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