Hu Xue Feng, Liu Gordon G, Fan Maoyong
Department of Biology, University of Ottawa, Canada.
National School of Development, Beijing University, China.
Health Econ. 2017 Jul;26(7):922-936. doi: 10.1002/hec.3371. Epub 2016 Jun 16.
We evaluate the long-term effects of famine on chronic diseases using China's Great Leap Forward Famine as a natural experiment. Using a unique health survey, we explore the heterogeneity of famine intensity across regions and find strong evidence supporting both the adverse effect and the selection effect. The two offsetting effects co-exist and their magnitudes vary in different age cohorts at the onset of famine. The selection effect is dominant among the prenatal/infant famine-exposed cohort, while the adverse effect appears dominant among the childhood/puberty famine-exposed cohort. The net famine effects are more salient in rural residents and non-migrants subsamples. Gender differences are also found, and are sensitive to smoking and drinking behaviors. Our conclusion is robust to various specifications. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
我们以中国的“大跃进”饥荒作为自然实验，评估饥荒对慢性病的长期影响。通过一项独特的健康调查，我们探究了各地区饥荒强度的异质性，并找到有力证据支持不利影响和选择效应。这两种相互抵消的效应并存，且在饥荒开始时不同年龄队列中的程度各异。选择效应在产前/婴儿期受饥荒影响的队列中占主导，而不利效应在儿童期/青春期受饥荒影响的队列中似乎占主导。净饥荒效应在农村居民和非流动人口子样本中更为显著。我们还发现了性别差异，且这些差异对吸烟和饮酒行为敏感。我们的结论在各种设定下都很稳健。版权所有© 2016约翰·威利父子有限公司。
