1] Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan [2] Application Laboratory/JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan.
Sci Rep. 2013 Oct 8;3:2892. doi: 10.1038/srep02892.
The seasonal prediction of the coastal oceanic warm event off West Australia, recently named the Ningaloo Niño, is explored by use of a state-of-the-art ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation model. The Ningaloo Niño/Niña, which generally matures in austral summer, is found to be predictable two seasons ahead. In particular, the unprecedented extreme warm event in February 2011 was successfully predicted 9 months in advance. The successful prediction of the Ningaloo Niño is mainly due to the high prediction skill of La Niña in the Pacific. However, the model deficiency to underestimate its early evolution and peak amplitude needs to be improved. Since the Ningaloo Niño/Niña has potential impacts on regional societies and industries through extreme events, the present success of its prediction may encourage development of its early warning system.
西澳大利亚沿海海洋暖事件（最近被命名为宁加洛尼诺）的季节性预测是通过使用最先进的海气耦合通用环流模型进行探索的。通常在南半球夏季成熟的宁加洛尼诺/尼娜现象被发现可以提前两个季节进行预测。特别是，2011 年 2 月发生的史无前例的极端暖事件在 9 个月前就被成功预测到了。对宁加洛尼诺的成功预测主要是由于太平洋拉尼娜现象的高预测技巧。然而，模型在低估其早期演变和峰值幅度方面存在缺陷，需要加以改进。由于宁加洛尼诺/尼娜通过极端事件对区域社会和产业可能产生影响，因此其预测的成功可能会鼓励其预警系统的开发。
