Liverpool University Climate and Infectious Diseases of Animals ( Lucinda) Group, Institute of Infection and Global Health, Leahurst Campus, University of Liverpool, Neston CH64 7TE, UK.
Anim Health Res Rev. 2013 Dec;14(2):143-6. doi: 10.1017/S1466252313000145. Epub 2013 Oct 23.
Climate change is widely expected to cause the emergence and spread of vector-borne diseases, and predictive models are needed so that we can be prepared. We developed a climate-sensitive, predictive, model that describes the risk of bluetongue, an arboviral disease of ruminants, which has emerged dramatically in Europe. Developing the predictive bluetongue model led to the identification of numerous gaps in both the understanding and the availability of data. These mostly pertain to the vectors and their interaction with hosts. Closing these gaps will allow better models, with more precise predictions, to be produced. These research gaps apply to many other arboviral diseases as well. As a consequence, there needs to be an increase in research on the vectors that transmit arboviral diseases. Priorities are the training of a new generation of taxonomists, studies on the field biology of potential vectors, and increased coordination of vector surveillance and recording between countries facing similar threats.
气候变化被广泛认为会导致虫媒传染病的出现和传播，因此我们需要预测模型，以便做好应对准备。我们开发了一种气候敏感型、预测性模型，用于描述蓝舌病（一种反刍动物的虫媒病毒病）的风险，该病在欧洲急剧出现。开发预测蓝舌病模型导致我们发现，在理解和获取数据方面存在许多空白。这些空白主要涉及到媒介及其与宿主的相互作用。填补这些空白将有助于生成更好、更准确的预测模型。这些研究空白也适用于许多其他虫媒病毒病。因此，需要增加对传播虫媒病毒病的媒介的研究。当务之急是培训新一代分类学家，研究潜在媒介的实地生物学，并加强面临类似威胁的国家之间的媒介监测和记录协调。
