Hahn Robert G
Research Unit, Södertälje Hospital, Södertälje, Sweden.
Forsch Komplementmed. 2013;20(5):376-81. doi: 10.1159/000355916. Epub 2013 Oct 17.
In the first decade of the evidence-based era, which began in the mid-1990s, meta-analyses were used to scrutinize homeopathy for evidence of beneficial effects in medical conditions. In this review, meta-analyses including pooled data from placebo-controlled clinical trials of homeopathy and the aftermath in the form of debate articles were analyzed. In 1997 Klaus Linde and co-workers identified 89 clinical trials that showed an overall odds ratio of 2.45 in favor of homeopathy over placebo. There was a trend toward smaller benefit from studies of the highest quality, but the 10 trials with the highest Jadad score still showed homeopathy had a statistically significant effect. These results challenged academics to perform alternative analyses that, to demonstrate the lack of effect, relied on extensive exclusion of studies, often to the degree that conclusions were based on only 5-10% of the material, or on virtual data. The ultimate argument against homeopathy is the 'funnel plot' published by Aijing Shang's research group in 2005. However, the funnel plot is flawed when applied to a mixture of diseases, because studies with expected strong treatments effects are, for ethical reasons, powered lower than studies with expected weak or unclear treatment effects. To conclude that homeopathy lacks clinical effect, more than 90% of the available clinical trials had to be disregarded. Alternatively, flawed statistical methods had to be applied. Future meta-analyses should focus on the use of homeopathy in specific diseases or groups of diseases instead of pooling data from all clinical trials.
在始于20世纪90年代中期的循证医学时代的第一个十年里,荟萃分析被用于仔细审查顺势疗法在医疗状况下是否有有益效果的证据。在本综述中,对包括顺势疗法安慰剂对照临床试验汇总数据以及以辩论文章形式呈现的后续情况的荟萃分析进行了分析。1997年,克劳斯·林德及其同事识别出89项临床试验,这些试验显示顺势疗法相对于安慰剂的总体优势比为2.45。高质量研究显示出的益处有变小的趋势,但雅达评分最高的10项试验仍表明顺势疗法具有统计学上的显著效果。这些结果促使学者们进行其他分析,这些分析为了证明顺势疗法没有效果,往往大量排除研究,以至于得出的结论常常仅基于5%至10%的材料,或者基于虚拟数据。对顺势疗法最有力的反驳是艾静·尚的研究小组在2005年发表的“漏斗图”。然而,当将漏斗图应用于多种疾病的混合情况时存在缺陷,因为出于伦理原因,预期有强烈治疗效果的研究的样本量低于预期治疗效果微弱或不明确的研究。为了得出顺势疗法缺乏临床效果的结论,不得不忽略超过90%的现有临床试验。或者,不得不采用有缺陷的统计方法。未来的荟萃分析应侧重于顺势疗法在特定疾病或疾病组中的应用,而不是汇总所有临床试验的数据。