Department of Psychology, University of Iowa, 52242, lowa City, Iowa.
Mem Cognit. 1977 Nov;5(6):679-84. doi: 10.3758/BF03197415.
Analyses of information integration and of retention were used to examine the processing of deviant information in prediction and evaluation tasks. Sets of test scores were presented serially for a group of hypothetical students, and subjects were asked to evaluate the performance of each student or predict each student's performance on a comprehensive final exam. An averaging model with greater weight for the more recent scores than for the earlier scores was supported for both types of task, but the recency was more pronounced in the prediction task. Weighting of deviant scores differed in the prediction and evaluation tasks. Significant discounting (underweighting) of deviant scores was obtained only in the prediction task, The ability to recall deviant scores on uncued tests of retention was higher in the prediction task than in the evaluation task. Prediction of future performance based on inconsistent measures of past performance thus appears to be an active process involving the discovery and discounting of unrepresentative information.
分析信息整合和保持情况，以检验在预测和评估任务中对异常信息的处理。为一组假设学生连续呈现了一组测试成绩，要求被试评估每个学生的表现或预测每个学生在综合期末考试中的表现。对于这两种任务，都支持一个平均值模型，该模型对最近的分数赋予的权重大于对较早的分数的权重，但在预测任务中，近期分数的权重更为明显。在预测和评估任务中，异常分数的加权方式不同。仅在预测任务中获得了对异常分数的显著折扣（低估），在预测任务中，在无提示的保持测试中回忆异常分数的能力高于评估任务。基于过去表现的不一致衡量标准预测未来表现，因此似乎是一个主动的过程，涉及发现和折扣不具代表性的信息。
