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纵向研究中的缺失数据:横断面多项插补提供的估计值与完全信息极大似然法相似。

Missing data in longitudinal studies: cross-sectional multiple imputation provides similar estimates to full-information maximum likelihood.

机构信息

Department of Psychiatry and Behavioural Neurosciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada; Offord Centre for Child Studies, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada.

出版信息

Ann Epidemiol. 2014 Jan;24(1):75-7. doi: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2013.10.007. Epub 2013 Oct 18.

Abstract

PURPOSE

The aim of this research was to examine, in an exploratory manner, whether cross-sectional multiple imputation generates valid parameter estimates for a latent growth curve model in a longitudinal data set with nonmonotone missingness.

METHODS

A simulated longitudinal data set of N = 5000 was generated and consisted of a continuous dependent variable, assessed at three measurement occasions and a categorical time-invariant independent variable. Missing data had a nonmonotone pattern and the proportion of missingness increased from the initial to the final measurement occasion (5%-20%). Three methods were considered to deal with missing data: listwise deletion, full-information maximum likelihood, and multiple imputation. A latent growth curve model was specified and analysis of variance was used to compare parameter estimates between the full data set and missing data approaches.

RESULTS

Multiple imputation resulted in significantly lower slope variance compared with the full data set. There were no differences in any parameter estimates between the multiple imputation and full-information maximum likelihood approaches.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggested that in longitudinal studies with nonmonotone missingness, cross-sectional imputation at each time point may be viable and produces estimates comparable with those obtained with full-information maximum likelihood. Future research pursuing the validity of this method is warranted.

摘要

目的

本研究旨在以探索性的方式检验,在具有非单调缺失的纵向数据集,横断多项插补是否能为潜在增长曲线模型生成有效的参数估计。

方法

生成了一个模拟的纵向数据集,N=5000,包含一个连续的因变量,在三个测量时间点评估,并具有一个类别不变的独立变量。缺失数据具有非单调模式,缺失比例从初始测量到最终测量时间点增加(5%-20%)。考虑了三种方法来处理缺失数据:完全删除、完全信息最大似然和多项插补。指定了一个潜在的增长曲线模型,并使用方差分析比较完整数据集和缺失数据方法之间的参数估计。

结果

多项插补导致斜率方差明显低于完整数据集。在多项插补和完全信息最大似然方法之间,任何参数估计都没有差异。

结论

本研究表明,在具有非单调缺失的纵向研究中,每个时间点的横断多项插补可能是可行的,并产生与完全信息最大似然法获得的估计值相当的结果。需要进一步研究该方法的有效性。

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