Undersampling taxa will underestimate molecular divergence dates: an example from the South american lizard clade liolaemini.

Methods for estimating divergence times from molecular data have improved dramatically over the past decade, yet there are few studies examining alternative taxon sampling effects on node age estimates. Here, I investigate the effect of undersampling species diversity on node ages of the South American lizard clade Liolaemini using several alternative subsampling strategies for both time calibrations and taxa numbers. Penalized likelihood (PL) and Bayesian molecular dating analyses were conducted on a densely sampled (202 taxa) mtDNA-based phylogenetic hypothesis of Iguanidae, including 92 Liolaemini species. Using all calibrations and penalized likelihood, clades with very low taxon sampling had node age estimates younger than clades with more complete taxon sampling. The effect of Bayesian and PL methods differed when either one or two calibrations only were used with dense taxon sampling. Bayesian node ages were always older when fewer calibrations were used, whereas PL node ages were always younger. This work reinforces two important points: (1) whenever possible, authors should strongly consider adding as many taxa as possible, including numerous outgroups, prior to node age estimation to avoid considerable node age underestimation and (2) using more, critically assessed, and accurate fossil calibrations should yield improved divergence time estimates.