CSIRO Computational Informatics, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research and the CSIRO Digital Productivity and Services Flagship, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
PLoS One. 2013 Nov 29;8(11):e80798. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0080798. eCollection 2013.
Annual draft systems are the principal method used by teams in major sporting leagues to recruit amateur players. These draft systems frequently take one of three forms: a lottery style draft, a weighted draft, or a reverse-order draft. Reverse-order drafts can create incentives for teams to deliberately under-perform, or tank, due to the perceived gain from obtaining quality players at higher draft picks. This paper uses a dynamic simulation model that captures the key components of a win-maximising sporting league, including the amateur player draft, draft choice error, player productivity, and between-team competition, to explore how competitive balance and incentives to under-perform vary according to league characteristics. We find reverse-order drafts can lead to some teams cycling between success and failure and to other teams being stuck in mid-ranking positions for extended periods of time. We also find that an incentive for teams to tank exists, but that this incentive decreases (i) as uncertainty in the ability to determine quality players in the draft increases, (ii) as the number of teams in the league reduces, (iii) as team size decreases, and (iv) as the number of teams adopting a tanking strategy increases. Simulation models can be used to explore complex stochastic dynamic systems such as sports leagues, where managers face difficult decisions regarding the structure of their league and the desire to maintain competitive balance.
年度选秀制度是职业体育联盟球队招募业余球员的主要方法。这些选秀制度通常采用以下三种形式之一：抽签式选秀、加权选秀或倒序选秀。倒序选秀可能会促使球队故意表现不佳，即摆烂，因为他们认为通过高顺位选秀获得优秀球员会有收益。本文使用了一个动态模拟模型，该模型捕捉了以赢得最大化为目标的体育联盟的关键组成部分，包括业余球员选秀、选秀选择错误、球员生产力和球队间竞争，以探讨根据联盟特点，竞争平衡和表现不佳的激励机制如何变化。我们发现，倒序选秀可能导致一些球队在成功和失败之间循环，并使其他球队长期处于中游排名位置。我们还发现，球队摆烂的动机确实存在，但这种动机随着（i）选秀中确定优秀球员能力的不确定性增加，（ii）联盟球队数量减少，（iii）球队规模缩小，以及（iv）采用摆烂策略的球队数量增加而降低。模拟模型可用于探索复杂的随机动态系统，如体育联盟，其中经理面临有关联盟结构的艰难决策，以及维护竞争平衡的愿望。
