[Grading forecast research for pathogenesis of allergic rhinitis directed by meteorological elements].

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the correlation between meteorological factors and onset of allergic rhinitis (AR), and to establish the prediction of AR epideminlogical trend.

METHODS

According to skin prick test (SPT) data of AR from Beijing Tongren Hospital and meteorological data of Beijing Observatory (2007 -2010) , analyzed the relationship between meteorological factors and onset in patients with AR. To analyze the probability distribution of onset in AR patients, and establish the grade of AR epideminlogical trend index. SPSS 16. O software was used to analyze the data.

RESULTS

The peak of onset in patients with AR appeared in 15 - 30 th August. There was significant correlation between the onset of AR patients and air temperature and vapor pressure(r = 0. 7473, F = 206. 13; r =0. 8465, F = 321. 04; all P < 0. 001) , and the peak of air temperature and vapor pressure were one month earlier than the peak of onset AR patients in 4 years. According to the above correlation, nonlinear prediction models of AR were established; used probability grading method, onset index of AR was divided into 4 grades.

CONCLUSION

Index grade forecast of AR onset has important guiding significance for AR diagnosis and prophylaxis, offers objective reference information for health departments.