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1992 - 2010年退休模式与宏观经济:美国近期三代老年人中过渡性工作、阶段性退休和再就业的流行情况及决定因素

Retirement patterns and the macroeconomy, 1992-2010: the prevalence and determinants of bridge jobs, phased retirement, and reentry among three recent cohorts of older americans.

作者信息

Cahill Kevin E, Giandrea Michael D, Quinn Joseph F

机构信息

Sloan Center on Aging & Work, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts.

Office of Productivity and Technology, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Washington, District of Columbia.

出版信息

Gerontologist. 2015 Jun;55(3):384-403. doi: 10.1093/geront/gnt146. Epub 2013 Dec 7.

Abstract

PURPOSE OF THE STUDY

Older Americans contemplating retirement today face a very different economic environment than prior cohorts did. This article examines whether the retirement patterns of older Americans have changed as a result.

DESIGN AND METHODS

Using data from 10 waves of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), we examine the prevalence of bridge jobs, phased retirement, and labor market reentry among 3 recent cohorts of older Americans, from 1992 through 2010. Determinants of retirement transitions are examined using bivariate comparisons and multivariate logistic and multinomial logistic regression models.

RESULTS

We find that traditional one-time, permanent exits from the labor force continue to be the exception rather than the rule and that the retirement patterns of the Early Boomers, those on the cusp of retirement during the recent Great Recession, appear to be diverging from those of earlier cohorts. The Early Boomer women, in particular, were more likely than those in previous cohorts, the HRS Core and the HRS War Babies, to move to a bridge job prior to exiting the labor force completely and both Early Boomer men and women were more likely to leave their career jobs involuntarily, with layoffs being a key factor.

IMPLICATIONS

The "do-it-yourself" approach to retirement planning-with individuals managing a large portion of their retirement finances-is now common among older Americans. This change in the retirement environment, combined with a significant and persistent cyclical downturn, may have long-lasting effects and suggests that the concept of retirement in the United States will continue to evolve.

摘要

研究目的

如今,考虑退休的美国老年人面临着与前几代人截然不同的经济环境。本文探讨了美国老年人的退休模式是否因此发生了变化。

设计与方法

利用健康与退休研究(HRS)十轮的数据,我们研究了1992年至2010年期间最近三代美国老年人中过渡性工作、阶段性退休和劳动力市场再进入的情况。使用双变量比较以及多元逻辑回归和多项逻辑回归模型来研究退休转变的决定因素。

结果

我们发现,传统的一次性、永久性退出劳动力市场仍然是例外而非惯例,而且婴儿潮早期出生的人(即在最近大衰退期间处于退休边缘的人)的退休模式似乎与早期几代人不同。特别是,婴儿潮早期出生的女性比之前几代人(HRS核心群体和HRS战时出生群体)更有可能在完全退出劳动力市场之前转向过渡性工作,而且婴儿潮早期出生的男性和女性都更有可能非自愿地离开他们的职业工作,裁员是一个关键因素。

启示

“自己动手”的退休规划方式(即个人管理很大一部分退休财务)如今在美国老年人中很普遍。退休环境的这种变化,再加上严重且持续的周期性衰退,可能会产生长期影响,并表明美国的退休概念将继续演变。

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