Mitchell Paul D
Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, USA.
Pest Manag Sci. 2014 Nov;70(11):1684-96. doi: 10.1002/ps.3703. Epub 2014 Jan 21.
Atrazine and other triazine herbicides are widely used in US maize and sorghum production, yet the most recent market-level assessment of the economic benefits of atrazine is for market conditions prevalent in the early 1990s, before commercialization of transgenic crops. Grain markets have changed substantially since that time; for example, the size of the US maize market increased by 170% from 1990-1992 to 2007-2009. This paper reports a current assessment of the economic benefits of atrazine.
Yield increases and cost changes implied by triazine herbicides are projected to reduce maize prices by 7-8% and sorghum prices by 19-20%. Projected consumer benefits from lower prices range from $US 3.6 to 4.4 × 10(9) annually, with the net projected economic benefit for triazine herbicides to the US economy ranging from $US 2.9 to 3.4 × 10(9) annually because lower prices imply reduced producer income. Productivity gains from triazine herbicides maintain an estimated 270 000-390 000 ha of land in non-crop uses that generate environmental benefits not accounted for in this analysis.
Even in the current era, with transgenic varieties dominating crop production, atrazine and the other triazine herbicides continue to be a key part of maize and sorghum production and generate substantial economic benefits.
阿特拉津及其他三嗪类除草剂在美国玉米和高粱生产中被广泛使用,但对阿特拉津经济效益的最新市场层面评估是针对转基因作物商业化之前20世纪90年代初普遍存在的市场状况。自那时以来,谷物市场发生了巨大变化;例如,从1990 - 1992年到2007 - 2009年,美国玉米市场规模增长了170%。本文报告了对阿特拉津经济效益的当前评估。
预计三嗪类除草剂带来的产量增加和成本变化将使玉米价格降低7 - 8%,高粱价格降低19 - 20%。预计消费者因价格降低而获得的年收益在36亿至44亿美元之间,由于价格降低意味着生产者收入减少,预计三嗪类除草剂给美国经济带来的年净经济效益在29亿至34亿美元之间。三嗪类除草剂带来的生产力提升使约27万至39万公顷土地得以用于非作物用途,这些用途产生的环境效益在本分析中未作考量。
即使在当前转基因品种主导作物生产的时代,阿特拉津及其他三嗪类除草剂仍是玉米和高粱生产的关键组成部分,并产生可观的经济效益。