Neuroscience Research Center, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences (MUMS), Mashhad, Iran,
Transl Stroke Res. 2012 Jun;3(2):273-8. doi: 10.1007/s12975-012-0146-0. Epub 2012 May 22.
Stroke risk prediction scores have been designed to stratify risk of recurrent cerebrovascular events in transient ischemic attack (TIA) and minor ischemic stroke (MIS) patients. Consecutive TIA or MIS patients referred to Ghaem Hospital, Mashhad were enrolled in a prospective cohort study during 2010-2011. Only TIA or MIS patients presenting within 24 h from the onset of symptoms were recruited. MIS was considered as ischemic stroke with NIHSS <4. The end point of the study was a new ischemic cerebrovascular event or vascular death at 90 days and additionally at 3 days. The decision to admit and treatment in each case was left to the discretion of the stroke neurologist. The predictive accuracy of the ABCD(2) scoring system for recurrent stroke or TIA was quantified by the area under the cure (AUC) using the c statistics. Three hundred ninety-three TIA patients (238 males, 155 females) and 118 MIS patients (77 males, 41 females) were enrolled in the study. One hundred seventeen strokes (23.2%), 99 TIA (19.6%), and 11 vascular death (2.2%) occurred within 3 months postevent in the whole of our 511 patients with minor ischemic events. The ABCD(2) score had a weak predictive value for 3 months and 3 days recurrent stroke in our TIA patients (AUC = 0.599, AUC = 0.591), but a high predictive value for 3 months and 3 days recurrent stroke in our MIS patients (AUC = 0.727, AUC = 0.728), respectively. The ABCD(2) score is highly predictive of short-term recurrent stroke in MIS patients but not TIA cases, despite its creation for TIA cohorts.
卒中风险预测评分旨在对短暂性脑缺血发作（TIA）和小缺血性卒中（MIS）患者的复发性脑血管事件进行分层。2010-2011 年，连续入组转诊至加姆医院的 TIA 或 MIS 患者，进行前瞻性队列研究。仅招募症状发作后 24 小时内就诊的 TIA 或 MIS 患者。MIS 定义为 NIHSS＜4 的缺血性卒中。研究终点为 90 天及 3 天时新的缺血性脑血管事件或血管性死亡。每个病例的住院和治疗决策由卒中神经病学家决定。使用 c 统计量计算 ABCD(2)评分系统对复发性卒中或 TIA 的预测准确性，曲线下面积（AUC）。共纳入 393 例 TIA 患者（238 例男性，155 例女性）和 118 例 MIS 患者（77 例男性，41 例女性）。117 例卒中（23.2%）、99 例 TIA（19.6%）和 11 例血管性死亡（2.2%）发生在我们所有 511 例小缺血事件患者的 3 个月内。ABCD(2)评分对 TIA 患者 3 个月和 3 天的复发性卒中预测价值较低（AUC=0.599，AUC=0.591），但对 MIS 患者 3 个月和 3 天的复发性卒中预测价值较高（AUC=0.727，AUC=0.728）。尽管 ABCD(2)评分是为 TIA 队列创建的，但它对 MIS 患者的短期复发性卒中具有高度预测价值，而对 TIA 患者则没有。
