University of California, San Francisco, USA.
J Aging Health. 2014 Mar;26(2):207-30. doi: 10.1177/0898264313513609. Epub 2013 Dec 10.
The aim of this study was to examine disability trends among men and women aged 70+ in Beijing, China; determine whether trends are impacted upon by changes in population composition; and investigate whether trends are experienced similarly across socio-demographic subgroups.
Fifteen-year panel data were used to model probability of reporting activities of daily living (ADLs) disability adjusting for age, sex, marital status, residence, and education. Predicted probabilities and average annual percent change in probabilities are reported.
The results showed increasing disability trends experienced by men, and stable or decreasing trends by women. Trends would be less favorable had education of older population not increased over time. Trends are much worse when bathing is excluded as an ADLs item. This is because trends in bathing were favorable whereas trends in other activities were not.
On balance, results are not overly encouraging for reductions in population-level disability given population aging and increasing life expectancy in China. But, future increasing education could mitigate some increases in disability rates.
本研究旨在考察中国北京 70 岁及以上人群的残疾趋势；确定人口构成变化是否对趋势产生影响；并调查社会人口统计学亚组是否经历类似的趋势。
使用 15 年的面板数据，通过调整年龄、性别、婚姻状况、居住地和教育水平，对报告日常生活活动（ADL）残疾的概率进行建模。报告了预测概率和概率的年平均百分比变化。
结果显示，男性的残疾趋势在增加，而女性的残疾趋势则稳定或下降。如果老年人口的教育水平没有随着时间的推移而提高，趋势将不那么有利。如果将洗澡排除在 ADL 项目之外，趋势会更糟。这是因为洗澡的趋势是有利的，而其他活动的趋势则不是。
总的来说，考虑到中国的人口老龄化和预期寿命的延长，在减少人口层面的残疾方面，结果并不是非常令人鼓舞。但是，未来教育水平的提高可能会减轻残疾率的一些上升。
