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评估狮子狨猴(Leontopithecus spp.)对未来气候变化的暴露程度。

Assessing the exposure of lion tamarins (Leontopithecus spp.) to future climate change.

机构信息

Programa de Pós-Graduação em Zoologia, Departamento de Zoologia, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Curitiba, Paraná, Brazil; Laboratório de Dinâmica Evolutiva e Sistemas Complexos, Departamento de Zoologia, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Curitiba, Paraná, Brazil.

出版信息

Am J Primatol. 2014 Jun;76(6):551-62. doi: 10.1002/ajp.22247. Epub 2013 Dec 17.

Abstract

Understanding how biodiversity will respond to climate change is a major challenge in conservation science. Climatic changes are likely to impose serious threats to many organisms, especially those with narrow distribution ranges, small populations and low dispersal capacity. Lion tamarins (Leontopithecus spp.) are endangered primates endemic to Brazilian Atlantic Forest (BAF), and all four living species are typical examples of these aggravating conditions. Here, we integrate ecological niche modeling and GIS-based information about BAF remnants and protected areas to estimate the exposure (i.e., the extent of climate change predicted to be experienced by a species) of current suitable habitats to climate change for 2050 and 2080, and to evaluate the efficacy of existing reserves to protect climatically suitable areas. Niche models were built using Maxent and then projected onto seven global circulation models derived from the A1B climatic scenario. According to our projections, the occurrence area of L. caissara will be little exposed to climate change. Western populations of L. chrysomelas could be potentially exposed, while climatically suitable habitats will be maintained only in part of the eastern region. Protected areas that presently harbor large populations of L. chrysopygus and L. rosalia will not retain climatic suitability by 2080. Monitoring trends of exposed populations and protecting areas predicted to hold suitable conditions should be prioritized. Given the potential exposure of key lion tamarin populations, we stress the importance of conducting additional studies to assess other aspects of their vulnerability (i.e., sensitivity to climate and adaptive capacity) and, therefore, to provide a more solid framework for future management decisions in the context of climate change.

摘要

了解生物多样性如何应对气候变化是保护科学面临的主要挑战。气候变化可能会对许多生物造成严重威胁,尤其是那些分布范围狭窄、种群数量小且扩散能力低的生物。狮面狨(Leontopithecus spp.)是一种濒危的原猴类,仅分布于巴西大西洋森林(BAF),所有四个现存物种都是这些恶化条件的典型代表。在这里,我们整合了生态位模型和基于 GIS 的 BAF 残余物和保护区信息,以估算当前适合栖息地对 2050 年和 2080 年气候变化的暴露程度(即预计某个物种将经历的气候变化程度),并评估现有保护区保护气候适宜区的效果。使用 Maxent 构建了生态位模型,然后将其投射到七个源自 A1B 气候情景的全球环流模型上。根据我们的预测,L. caissara 的出现区域将很少受到气候变化的影响。西部的 L. chrysomelas 种群可能会受到潜在的影响,而东部地区只有部分地区的气候适宜栖息地将得以维持。目前栖息着大量 L. chrysopygus 和 L. rosalia 的保护区到 2080 年将不再保持气候适宜性。监测暴露种群的趋势和保护预测具有适宜条件的地区应该是优先事项。鉴于关键狮面狨种群可能面临的暴露风险,我们强调有必要开展更多研究,以评估它们的脆弱性(即对气候的敏感性和适应能力)的其他方面,从而为气候变化背景下未来的管理决策提供更坚实的框架。

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