Marchioro Cesar A
Department of Agriculture, Biodiversity and Forest, Campus of Curitibanos, Centre of Rural Science, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Curitibanos, Santa Catarina, Brazil.
PLoS One. 2016 Nov 10;11(11):e0166142. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0166142. eCollection 2016.
The carambola fruit fly, Bactrocera carambolae, is a tephritid native to Asia that has invaded South America through small-scale trade of fruits from Indonesia. The economic losses associated with biological invasions of other fruit flies around the world and the polyphagous behaviour of B. carambolae have prompted much concern among government agencies and farmers with the potential spread of this pest. Here, ecological niche models were employed to identify suitable environments available to B. carambolae in a global scale and assess the extent of the fruit acreage that may be at risk of attack in Brazil. Overall, 30 MaxEnt models built with different combinations of environmental predictors and settings were evaluated for predicting the potential distribution of the carambola fruit fly. The best model was selected based on threshold-independent and threshold-dependent metrics. Climatically suitable areas were identified in tropical and subtropical regions of Central and South America, Sub-Saharan Africa, west and east coast of India and northern Australia. The suitability map of B. carambola was intersected against maps of fruit acreage in Brazil. The acreage under potential risk of attack varied widely among fruit species, which is expected because the production areas are concentrated in different regions of the country. The production of cashew is the one that is at higher risk, with almost 90% of its acreage within the suitable range of B. carambolae, followed by papaya (78%), tangerine (51%), guava (38%), lemon (30%), orange (29%), mango (24%) and avocado (20%). This study provides an important contribution to the knowledge of the ecology of B. carambolae, and the information generated here can be used by government agencies as a decision-making tool to prevent the carambola fruit fly spread across the world.
杨桃实蝇（Bactrocera carambolae）是一种原产于亚洲的实蝇，通过来自印度尼西亚的水果小规模贸易入侵了南美洲。世界各地与其他实蝇生物入侵相关的经济损失以及杨桃实蝇的多食性，引发了政府机构和农民对这种害虫潜在传播的诸多担忧。在此，利用生态位模型在全球范围内识别杨桃实蝇可利用的适宜环境，并评估巴西可能遭受攻击的水果种植面积范围。总体而言，评估了用不同环境预测因子组合和设置构建的30个MaxEnt模型，以预测杨桃实蝇的潜在分布。根据与阈值无关和与阈值相关的指标选择了最佳模型。在中美洲和南美洲、撒哈拉以南非洲、印度西海岸和东海岸以及澳大利亚北部的热带和亚热带地区确定了气候适宜区。将杨桃实蝇的适宜性地图与巴西的水果种植面积地图相交。不同水果种类遭受攻击的潜在风险种植面积差异很大，这是预期的，因为产区集中在该国不同地区。腰果生产面临的风险最高，其种植面积近90%在杨桃实蝇适宜范围内，其次是木瓜（78%）、橘子（51%）、番石榴（38%）、柠檬（30%）、橙子（29%）、芒果（24%）和鳄梨（20%）。本研究为杨桃实蝇生态学知识做出了重要贡献，此处生成的信息可供政府机构用作决策工具，以防止杨桃实蝇在全球传播。
