Economic risk analysis model for bovine viral diarrhea virus biosecurity in cow-calf herds.

A stochastic model was designed to calculate the cost-effectiveness of biosecurity strategies for bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) in cow-calf herds. Possible sources of BVDV introduction considered were imported animals, including the calves of pregnant imports, and fenceline contact with infected herds, including stocker cattle raised in adjacent pastures. Spread of BVDV through the herd was modeled with a stochastic SIR model. Financial consequences of BVDV, including lost income, treatment costs, and the cost of biosecurity strategies, were calculated for 10 years, based on the risks of a herd with a user-defined import profile. Results indicate that importing pregnant animals and stockers increased the financial risk of BVDV. Strategic testing in combination with vaccination most decreased the risk of high-cost outbreaks in most herds. The choice of a biosecurity strategy was specific to the risks of a particular herd.