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卡米雷雷的第三磨牙 cutoff 值评估 18 岁准确性。

Accuracy of Cameriere's cut-off value for third molar in assessing 18 years of age.

机构信息

AgEstimation Project, Institute of Legal Medicine, University of Macerata, Macerata, Italy.

Fondazione IRCCS Cà Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico - Department of Biomedical, Surgical and Dental Sciences - Unit of Orthodontics and Pediatric Dentistry - University of Milan, Milan, Italy.

出版信息

Forensic Sci Int. 2014 Feb;235:102.e1-6. doi: 10.1016/j.forsciint.2013.10.036. Epub 2013 Nov 25.

Abstract

Due to increasingly numerous international migrations, estimating the age of unaccompanied minors is becoming of enormous significance for forensic professionals who are required to deliver expert opinions. The third molar tooth is one of the few anatomical sites available for estimating the age of individuals in late adolescence. This study verifies the accuracy of Cameriere's cut-off value of the third molar index (I3M) in assessing 18 years of age. For this purpose, a sample of orthopantomographs (OPTs) of 397 living subjects aged between 13 and 22 years (192 female and 205 male) was analyzed. Age distribution gradually decreases as I3M increases in both males and females. The results show that the sensitivity of the test was 86.6%, with a 95% confidence interval of (80.8%, 91.1%), and its specificity was 95.7%, with a 95% confidence interval of (92.1%, 98%). The proportion of correctly classified individuals was 91.4%. Estimated post-test probability, p was 95.6%, with a 95% confidence interval of (92%, 98%). Hence, the probability that a subject positive on the test (i.e., I3M<0.08) was 18 years of age or older was 95.6%.

摘要

由于国际移民数量的不断增加,对于需要提供专家意见的法医专业人员来说,估计无人陪伴未成年人的年龄变得非常重要。第三磨牙是少数可用于估计青少年后期个体年龄的解剖部位之一。本研究验证了卡梅里耶的第三磨牙指数(I3M)截止值在评估 18 岁年龄时的准确性。为此,对 397 名年龄在 13 至 22 岁之间的活体受试者的全景片(OPTs)样本进行了分析(192 名女性和 205 名男性)。在男性和女性中,I3M 增加时,年龄分布逐渐减少。结果表明,该测试的灵敏度为 86.6%,95%置信区间为(80.8%,91.1%),特异性为 95.7%,95%置信区间为(92.1%,98%)。正确分类个体的比例为 91.4%。估计的后验概率,p 为 95.6%,95%置信区间为(92%,98%)。因此,在测试中呈阳性(即 I3M<0.08)的受试者年龄为 18 岁或以上的概率为 95.6%。

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