重复测量数据的固定效应分析。

Fixed effects analysis of repeated measures data.

作者信息

Gunasekara Fiona Imlach, Richardson Ken, Carter Kristie, Blakely Tony

机构信息

Health Inequalities Research Programme, Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand.

出版信息

Int J Epidemiol. 2014 Feb;43(1):264-9. doi: 10.1093/ije/dyt221. Epub 2013 Dec 23.

Abstract

The analysis of repeated measures or panel data allows control of some of the biases which plague other observational studies, particularly unmeasured confounding. When this bias is suspected, and the research question is: 'Does a change in an exposure cause a change in the outcome?', a fixed effects approach can reduce the impact of confounding by time-invariant factors, such as the unmeasured characteristics of individuals. Epidemiologists familiar with using mixed models may initially presume that specifying a random effect (intercept) for every individual in the study is an appropriate method. However, this method uses information from both the within-individual/unit exposure-outcome association and the between-individual/unit exposure-outcome association. Variation between individuals may introduce confounding bias into mixed model estimates, if unmeasured time-invariant factors are associated with both the exposure and the outcome. Fixed effects estimators rely only on variation within individuals and hence are not affected by confounding from unmeasured time-invariant factors. The reduction in bias using a fixed effects model may come at the expense of precision, particularly if there is little change in exposures over time. Neither fixed effects nor mixed models control for unmeasured time-varying confounding or reverse causation.

摘要

重复测量分析或面板数据分析能够控制一些困扰其他观察性研究的偏差,尤其是未测量的混杂因素。当怀疑存在这种偏差,且研究问题是:“暴露的变化是否会导致结果的变化?”时,固定效应方法可以减少时间不变因素(如个体的未测量特征)造成的混杂影响。熟悉使用混合模型的流行病学家最初可能会假定,为研究中的每个个体指定一个随机效应(截距)是一种合适的方法。然而,这种方法利用了个体内部/单位暴露-结果关联和个体之间/单位暴露-结果关联的信息。如果未测量的时间不变因素与暴露和结果都相关,个体之间的差异可能会给混合模型估计带来混杂偏差。固定效应估计量仅依赖于个体内部的差异,因此不受未测量的时间不变因素造成的混杂影响。使用固定效应模型减少偏差可能会以精度为代价,尤其是如果暴露随时间变化不大时。固定效应模型和混合模型都无法控制未测量的随时间变化的混杂因素或反向因果关系。

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