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预测并绘制美洲鹤中途停歇栖息地的潜在分布,以指导风能项目的选址。

Predicting and mapping potential Whooping Crane stopover habitat to guide site selection for wind energy projects.

作者信息

Belaire J Amy, Kreakie Betty J, Keitt Timothy, Minor Emily

机构信息

Department of Biological Sciences, University of Illinois at Chicago, 845 W. Taylor St (MC 066), Chicago, IL, 60607, U.S.A..

出版信息

Conserv Biol. 2014 Apr;28(2):541-50. doi: 10.1111/cobi.12199. Epub 2013 Dec 20.

DOI:10.1111/cobi.12199
PMID:24372936
Abstract

Migratory stopover habitats are often not part of planning for conservation or new development projects. We identified potential stopover habitats within an avian migratory flyway and demonstrated how this information can guide the site-selection process for new development. We used the random forests modeling approach to map the distribution of predicted stopover habitat for the Whooping Crane (Grus americana), an endangered species whose migratory flyway overlaps with an area where wind energy development is expected to become increasingly important. We then used this information to identify areas for potential wind power development in a U.S. state within the flyway (Nebraska) that minimize conflicts between Whooping Crane stopover habitat and the development of clean, renewable energy sources. Up to 54% of our study area was predicted to be unsuitable as Whooping Crane stopover habitat and could be considered relatively low risk for conflicts between Whooping Cranes and wind energy development. We suggest that this type of analysis be incorporated into the habitat conservation planning process in areas where incidental take permits are being considered for Whooping Cranes or other species of concern. Field surveys should always be conducted prior to construction to verify model predictions and understand baseline conditions.

摘要

候鸟中途停歇栖息地往往不属于保护规划或新开发项目规划的一部分。我们在一条鸟类迁徙路线内确定了潜在的中途停歇栖息地,并展示了这些信息如何能指导新开发项目的选址过程。我们采用随机森林建模方法绘制了美洲鹤(Grus americana)预测中途停歇栖息地的分布,美洲鹤是一种濒危物种,其迁徙路线与一个预计风能开发将日益重要的地区重叠。然后,我们利用这些信息在美国该迁徙路线内的一个州(内布拉斯加州)确定潜在的风力发电开发区域,以尽量减少美洲鹤中途停歇栖息地与清洁可再生能源开发之间的冲突。预计我们研究区域高达54%的地方不适宜作为美洲鹤的中途停歇栖息地,可被视为美洲鹤与风能开发冲突相对较低风险的区域。我们建议,在考虑为美洲鹤或其他受关注物种发放附带性捕获许可的地区,应将此类分析纳入栖息地保护规划过程。在施工前始终应进行实地调查,以验证模型预测并了解基线情况。

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