Department of Statistics, 3310 Holdrege Street, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, 68583, U.S.A.
School of Natural Resources, 3310 Holdrege Street, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, 68583, U.S.A.
Conserv Biol. 2015 Oct;29(5):1337-46. doi: 10.1111/cobi.12515. Epub 2015 Apr 29.
Predicting a species' distribution can be helpful for evaluating management actions such as critical habitat designations under the U.S. Endangered Species Act or habitat acquisition and rehabilitation. Whooping Cranes (Grus americana) are one of the rarest birds in the world, and conservation and management of habitat is required to ensure their survival. We developed a species distribution model (SDM) that could be used to inform habitat management actions for Whooping Cranes within the state of Nebraska (U.S.A.). We collated 407 opportunistic Whooping Crane group records reported from 1988 to 2012. Most records of Whooping Cranes were contributed by the public; therefore, developing an SDM that accounted for sampling bias was essential because observations at some migration stopover locations may be under represented. An auxiliary data set, required to explore the influence of sampling bias, was derived with expert elicitation. Using our SDM, we compared an intensively managed area in the Central Platte River Valley with the Niobrara National Scenic River in northern Nebraska. Our results suggest, during the peak of migration, Whooping Crane abundance was 262.2 (90% CI 40.2-3144.2) times higher per unit area in the Central Platte River Valley relative to the Niobrara National Scenic River. Although we compared only 2 areas, our model could be used to evaluate any region within the state of Nebraska. Furthermore, our expert-informed modeling approach could be applied to opportunistic presence-only data when sampling bias is a concern and expert knowledge is available.
预测物种的分布对于评估管理行动非常有帮助，例如在美国濒危物种法案下进行关键栖息地指定、进行栖息地获取和恢复等。美洲鹤（Grus americana）是世界上最稀有的鸟类之一，需要保护和管理其栖息地，以确保它们的生存。我们开发了一种物种分布模型（SDM），可用于为内布拉斯加州（美国）的美洲鹤的栖息地管理行动提供信息。我们整理了 1988 年至 2012 年期间 407 次偶然记录的美洲鹤群体记录。美洲鹤的大多数记录都是由公众提供的；因此，开发一种考虑到抽样偏差的 SDM 是至关重要的，因为在一些迁徙中途停留地点的观测可能会被低估。我们利用专家意见得出了一个辅助数据集，用于探索抽样偏差的影响。使用我们的 SDM，我们比较了内布拉斯加州中部普拉特河谷地区和北部尼布勒拉国家风景河的密集管理区。我们的研究结果表明，在迁徙高峰期，美洲鹤的丰度在中部普拉特河谷地区每单位面积比尼布勒拉国家风景河高 262.2 倍（90%置信区间为 40.2-3144.2）。尽管我们只比较了 2 个地区，但我们的模型可以用于评估内布拉斯加州的任何地区。此外，当存在抽样偏差并且有专家知识可用时，我们的专家知情建模方法可以应用于机会性存在数据。
