Correspondence should be addressed to Pekka Martikainen, Population Research Unit, Department of Social Research, University of Helsinki, PO Box 18, FIN-00014 Helsinki, Finland. E-mail:
J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci. 2014 Mar;69(2):303-10. doi: 10.1093/geronb/gbt131. Epub 2013 Dec 27.
We estimate (a) probabilities of moving to and from long-term institutional care and probabilities of death and (b) life expectancy in the community and in care by gender and marital status.
A 40% random sample of Finns aged 65+ at the end of 1997 (n = 301,263) drawn from the population register was linked with register-based information on sociodemographic characteristics, entry and exit dates for long-term institutional care, and dates of death in 1998-2003. Probabilities and life expectancies were estimated using multistate life tables.
At age 65, women are expected to spend more of their remaining lifetime in institutions than men (1.6 and 0.7 years, respectively). These care expectancies remain similar even for survivors to very advanced ages. Gender differences are driven by women's higher chances of entering institutions at ages above 80 years and lower chances of exit. At age 65, 59% of women and 36% of men will ever enter long-term institutions. The married spend less of their longer life expectancy in institutions than the non-married. The large gender difference in care use exists within each marital status group.
The resources that are needed to provide long-term care services will increase as age of death increases. We demonstrate significantly longer care expectancy among women and among the unmarried.
我们估计（a）从长期机构护理转移到长期机构护理和死亡的概率，以及（b）按性别和婚姻状况在社区和护理中的预期寿命。
从人口登记册中抽取了 1997 年底年龄在 65 岁以上的芬兰人（n=301263）的 40%随机样本，与基于登记的社会人口特征、进入和退出长期机构护理的日期以及 1998-2003 年死亡日期的信息相关联。使用多状态生命表估计概率和预期寿命。
在 65 岁时，女性在机构中度过的剩余寿命预计比男性长（分别为 1.6 年和 0.7 年）。即使对于非常高龄的幸存者，这些护理预期寿命仍然相似。性别差异是由女性在 80 岁以上进入机构的机会较高和离开机构的机会较低造成的。在 65 岁时，59%的女性和 36%的男性将进入长期机构。已婚者在机构中度过的预期寿命比未婚者短。在每个婚姻状况群体中，护理使用的性别差异都很大。
随着死亡年龄的增加，提供长期护理服务所需的资源将会增加。我们证明了女性和未婚者的护理预期寿命明显更长。
