Gill M, Murday V, Slack J
Soc Sci Med. 1987;24(9):725-31. doi: 10.1016/0277-9536(87)90109-2.
The direct and indirect costs and benefits of expanding the existing screening programme for Down's syndrome by using maternal age and serum alpha fetoprotein concentrations have been calculated using an ascertainment of Down's syndrome pregnancies from the North East Thames Regions in 1982. In addition, a possible approach to evaluating the total costs and benefits to the families concerned is presented. If the uptake of the proposed screening programme is maximal, the replacement rate is zero and a discount rate of 5% is used, the benefit cost ratio is 23.6. If the uptake of the programme is 50%, the replacement rate is 100% and a discount rate of 7% is used, the benefit cost ratio is 12.2. The proposed screening programme, based upon a risk of Down's syndrome of at least 1 in 220 using maternal age and serum alpha fetoprotein is both equitable for families at risk and of economic benefit to both families and society.
利用1982年来自泰晤士河北部地区确诊的唐氏综合征妊娠病例，计算了通过孕妇年龄和血清甲胎蛋白浓度扩大现有唐氏综合征筛查项目的直接和间接成本及效益。此外，还提出了一种评估相关家庭总成本和效益的可行方法。如果拟议筛查项目的参与率达到最高、替代率为零且使用5%的贴现率，则效益成本比为23.6。如果项目参与率为50%、替代率为100%且使用7%的贴现率，则效益成本比为12.2。基于孕妇年龄和血清甲胎蛋白、唐氏综合征风险至少为1/220的拟议筛查项目，对有风险的家庭而言是公平的，且对家庭和社会都具有经济效益。
