利用聚变-裂变过程通用模型对台湾地震进行短期预测。

Short-term forecasting of Taiwanese earthquakes using a universal model of fusion-fission processes.

作者信息

Cheong Siew Ann, Tan Teck Liang, Chen Chien-Chih, Chang Wu-Lung, Liu Zheng, Chew Lock Yue, Sloot Peter M A, Johnson Neil F

机构信息

1] Division of Physics and Applied Physics, School of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, 21 Nanyang Link, Singapore 637371, Republic of Singapore [2] Complexity Program, Nanyang Technological University, 60 Nanyang View, Singapore 639673, Republic of Singapore.

Division of Physics and Applied Physics, School of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, 21 Nanyang Link, Singapore 637371, Republic of Singapore.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2014 Jan 10;4:3624. doi: 10.1038/srep03624.

DOI:10.1038/srep03624

PMID:24406467

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3887376/

Abstract

Predicting how large an earthquake can be, where and when it will strike remains an elusive goal in spite of the ever-increasing volume of data collected by earth scientists. In this paper, we introduce a universal model of fusion-fission processes that can be used to predict earthquakes starting from catalog data. We show how the equilibrium dynamics of this model very naturally explains the Gutenberg-Richter law. Using the high-resolution earthquake catalog of Taiwan between Jan 1994 and Feb 2009, we illustrate how out-of-equilibrium spatio-temporal signatures in the time interval between earthquakes and the integrated energy released by earthquakes can be used to reliably determine the times, magnitudes, and locations of large earthquakes, as well as the maximum numbers of large aftershocks that would follow.

摘要

尽管地球科学家收集的数据量不断增加，但预测地震的震级大小、发生地点和时间仍然是一个难以实现的目标。在本文中，我们介绍了一种可用于从目录数据预测地震的聚变-裂变过程通用模型。我们展示了该模型的平衡动力学如何非常自然地解释古登堡-里希特定律。利用1994年1月至2009年2月台湾地区的高分辨率地震目录，我们说明了如何利用地震之间时间间隔内的非平衡时空特征以及地震释放的总能量，可靠地确定大地震的时间、震级和位置，以及随后可能发生的最大余震数量。