Baiesi Marco, Paczuski Maya
INFM-Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Padova, I-35131 Padua, Italy.
Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys. 2004 Jun;69(6 Pt 2):066106. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.69.066106. Epub 2004 Jun 2.
We propose a metric to quantify correlations between earthquakes. The metric consists of a product involving the time interval and spatial distance between two events, as well as the magnitude of the first one. According to this metric, events typically are strongly correlated to only one or a few preceding ones. Thus a classification of events as foreshocks, main shocks, or aftershocks emerges automatically without imposing predetermined space-time windows. In the simplest network construction, each earthquake receives an incoming link from its most correlated predecessor. The number of aftershocks for any event, identified by its outgoing links, is found to be scale free with exponent gamma=2.0(1). The original Omori law with p=1 emerges as a robust feature of seismicity, holding up to years even for aftershock sequences initiated by intermediate magnitude events. The broad distribution of distances between earthquakes and their linked aftershocks suggests that aftershock collection with fixed space windows is not appropriate.
我们提出了一种用于量化地震之间相关性的度量标准。该度量标准由一个乘积组成,涉及两个事件之间的时间间隔、空间距离以及第一个事件的震级。根据这个度量标准,事件通常仅与一个或几个先前事件高度相关。因此,无需施加预先设定的时空窗口,事件自动就会被分类为前震、主震或余震。在最简单的网络构建中,每次地震都从其最相关的前体地震接收一条输入链接。通过其输出链接识别出的任何事件的余震数量被发现具有幂律分布,指数γ = 2.0(1)。p = 1的原始大森定律是地震活动性的一个稳健特征,即使对于由中等震级事件引发的余震序列,该定律也能持续数年成立。地震与其关联余震之间距离的广泛分布表明,采用固定空间窗口收集余震并不合适。