Laboratory Medicine 113, VA Medical Center, 508 Fulton St, Durham, NC 27705; Robin.
Am J Clin Pathol. 2014 Feb;141(2):213-8. doi: 10.1309/AJCPFOV67CLZVPZZ.
Mitotic counts in melanoma are important and have now become part of the staging of this tumor. Yet, this change was largely based on studies that evaluated the mitotic counts in a limited fashion. Because counts of things with a microscope are often distributed as a Poisson random variable, the major goal of this study was to uncover the probabilistic nature of mitotic counts in melanoma.
Specifically, a general double Poisson model was applied to mitotic counts in 53 cutaneous melanomas representing both thin and thick tumors.
The general double Poisson probability model fit the data well. A single Poisson function was sufficient for 46 of the 53 study cases, and two Poisson functions were required for seven cases because of tissue heterogeneity. Furthermore, the success of the model implied that there is a high probability for false-negative mitotic counts, especially in thin melanomas, and that the "hot" spot methodology introduces bias.
Mitotic counts in melanomas are a probabilistic phenomenon closely related to the Poisson probability distribution, and this factor needs to be considered when using mitotic counts for staging and prognosis in melanoma.
黑色素瘤有丝分裂计数很重要，现已成为该肿瘤分期的一部分。然而，这一变化主要基于评估有丝分裂计数的有限研究。由于显微镜下计数的事物通常呈泊松随机变量分布，因此本研究的主要目的是揭示黑色素瘤有丝分裂计数的概率性质。
具体而言，应用广义双泊松模型对代表薄型和厚型肿瘤的 53 例皮肤黑色素瘤的有丝分裂计数进行了分析。
广义双泊松概率模型很好地拟合了数据。由于组织异质性，46 例研究病例中单个泊松函数就足够了，而 7 例病例则需要两个泊松函数。此外，模型的成功表明，有丝分裂计数出现假阴性的可能性很高，尤其是在薄型黑色素瘤中，并且“热点”方法会引入偏差。
黑色素瘤的有丝分裂计数是一种与泊松概率分布密切相关的概率现象，在使用有丝分裂计数进行黑色素瘤分期和预后时需要考虑这一因素。
